This report covers the key economic, financial and political releases for Bulgaria for the period August 20 – September 19.

Bulgaria’s real GDP growth accelerated to 3% y/y in the second quarter of 2016 from 2.9% y/y in the previous three months, according to seasonally-adjusted statistics office data that confirmed an August 12 flash estimate.

Following a visit to the country, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission expects economic growth of 3% in 2016, revising up an IMF forecast of 2.3% growth made in April.

Bulgaria's overall business climate indicator was approximately flat m/m in August, after dropping 0.9 points m/m in July. The industrial production increased by 2.3% y/y in July, decelerating from a 4% y/y rise in June. The construction output fell 11.8% y/y in July, after decreasing by 13% y/y the month before. Annual growth of retail sales (at constant prices) decelerated to 2.2% in July from 5.4% in June.


Key points:
• The CPI declined by 0.3% y/y in August, after edging down 0.2% y/y in July
• Bulgaria reported a consolidated budget surplus of BGN3.29bn (€1.68bn) in January-August, equal to around 3.7% of projected GDP, preliminary data from the finance ministry showed
• The country reported a current account surplus of €1.29bn in the first seven months of 2016, up from a surplus of €380.5mn in the same period of 2015