This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases for Bulgaria for the period from April 9, 2015 to May 8, 2015.

The European Commission revised up its projection for Bulgaria’s GDP growth in both 2015 and 2016, but the outlook remains gloomy amid an expected slowdown in public investment and continued weak private investment. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on April 14 it has lowered its forecast for the country’s 2015 GDP growth to 1.2% from 2% projected six months ago. The Bulgarian government has raised its 2015 economic growth projection to 1.4% from 0.8% expected previously.

Bulgaria's unemployment rate was 11% in March, unchanged from February, but 1.2pp lower in annual terms.

Bulgaria's overall business climate indicator rose by 2.5 points m/m in April, improving for the fourth consecutive month. Industrial production growth accelerated to 2.9% y/y in March from 2.5% y/y the month before. On the negative side, annual retail sales growth (at constant prices) decelerated to 0.8% in March from 4.2% in February.

Key points:
• Bulgaria’s consumer prices edged up 0.1% y/y in March, reversing a 0.5% y/y decline in February and posting their first annual growth in 20 months
• The consolidated budget showed a surplus of BGN257.1mn (€131.4mn) in Q1, reversing a deficit of BGN874mn in Q1 2014
• The current account deficit narrowed by 49.6% y/y to €239.7mn in January-February