This report covers the macroeconomic releases from October 7 to November 11, 2014, as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia during this period.

The World Bank has downgraded its 2014 GDP outlook on Bosnia, saying its economy will contract by 0.7% this year rather than expand by 2.0% as previously anticipated.

The IMF was more optimistic, as it predicted a slight growth of 0.7% in the country this year, thus keeping the estimate unchanged from a previous forecast made in July.

On October 8, the European Commission said that even though Bosnia has a European perspective just like the other Western Balkan states, the country’s European integration process has been at a standstill in the past several years since its Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU was initialled.
The October 12 elections indicated change of power in the Muslim-Croat Federation. In addition, the opposition candidate won the seat of Serb presidency member.

Key Points:
 Bosnia’s economy shrank by 1.2% y/y in Q2, following a revised growth of 2.0% y/y in Q1.
 Consumer prices in the country declined for the 14th month in a row in September, going down 0.1% y/y but narrowing from a 0.6% y/y drop in August.
 Bosnia’s working-day adjusted industrial production swung to a 1.7% y/y increase in September from a 4.4% annual drop in the previous month.