A new political project led by former Bulgarian president Rumen Radev would win the largest share of votes if parliamentary elections were held now, according to a poll released on March 5, as the country prepares for another snap election in April.

The survey by Alpha Research showed support for Radev’s newly launched coalition Progressive Bulgaria at 32.6% among those intending to vote.

The formation would comfortably outpace the centre-right GERB–UDF alliance led by former prime minister Boyko Borissov, which the poll placed second with 19.7%.

The poll is the latest to suggest strong early support for a Radev-led political force ahead of Bulgaria’s April 19 snap parliamentary election, the eighth vote in five years following a prolonged period of political instability.

Radev, who served as Bulgaria’s president from 2017 until stepping down in January, announced on March 2 that he would lead a new coalition in the election, moving directly into party politics after months of speculation about his next role.

Other parties lag significantly behind in the Alpha Research survey. The reformist coalition Change Continues – Democratic Bulgaria was placed third with 12.6%, down sharply from 17.8% in the agency’s December poll.

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms – New Beginning, led by controversial businessman and politician Delyan Peevski, followed with 9.6%. Nationalist party Vazrazhdane was projected to win 6.4%, a significant decline from late last year.

Several parties were shown to be hovering around or below the 4% threshold needed to enter parliament, including the Bulgarian Socialist Party – United Left with 3.6% and the nationalist-populist MECh at 3.5%.

The survey, conducted between February 23 and March 3 among 1,000 adults nationwide, was the first by Alpha Research to include a potential Radev political project after he resigned as head of state.

According to analyst Genoveva Petrova of Alpha Research, the new formation is drawing support from a broad and diverse group of voters, including former backers of the Socialist Party, nationalist and populist parties, as well as citizens who did not participate in the last parliamentary elections.

Two previous surveys also indicated a strong showing for a Radev-aligned movement. A poll by Trend published by newspaper 24 Chasa on February 23 put such a formation at 32.7%, while a February 16 survey by Market Links showed it leading with 25.6%.

Radev himself has expressed confidence about the upcoming vote. Speaking to supporters during Bulgaria’s national day celebrations on March 3 in Stara Zagora, he said he expected victory and pledged to dismantle what he described as an “oligarchic corruption model” in Bulgarian politics.

“We are going on a march for the future of Bulgaria,” Radev said. “We will win these elections with the awareness that we will establish governance with clear rules, the same for everyone.”

Despite the strong polling numbers, forming majority government may remain difficult in a deeply fragmented political landscape.

Bulgaria has experienced years of political deadlock and repeated elections, with fragile coalitions repeatedly collapsing. The latest crisis followed the resignation of Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov in December amid protests over corruption, triggering the April vote.

The Alpha Research poll also showed that 37% of respondents believe the upcoming election will be fairer than previous ones, while 34% expect it to be less fair.

Among political figures, Radev currently has the highest personal approval rating at 37.1%, compared with 18.4% for Borissov, while Peevski has the highest disapproval rating at nearly 80%, according to the survey.