Polish CPI growth came in at 17.5% y/y in November (chart), easing by 0.4pp versus November, the statistical office GUS said on December 15.

The reading revises GUS’s flash estimate published at the end of November upwards by 0.1pp. November CPI is the first y/y easing of the index’s growth rate since June 2021 (excluding February, when the government anti-inflation measures took effect) and points to inflation losing momentum, albeit still very incrementally.

Price growth is expected to renew in 2023 on the back of the return of VAT rates for electricity, heat, fuels, and natural gas, which were lowered in line with the government’s anti-inflation measures. 

Overall in 2023, however, inflation is expected to keep easing, with the National Bank of Poland’s monetary tightening being “on hold”.

“The annual CPI growth will remain quite stable or slightly decline in December before jumping above 20% y/y in February due to the cancellation of the VAT relief,” Santander Bank Polska said in a comment.

“After that, inflation should enter a downward trend but is likely to remain above 10% throughout 2023,” Santander added. 

Prices in the second most-weighted segment, housing and energy, led the growth in headline inflation in November, expanding 26% y/y, only slightly less than a gain of 28.7% y/y in October. 

Prices in the most-weighted food and non-alcoholic drinks segment increased 22.3% y/y in November, 0.3pp above the October expansion, GUS data also showed. 

In the transport segment, prices added 14.4% y/y in November after growing 17.3% y/y the preceding month. 

In m/m terms, price growth came in at 0.7% in November, compared to a growth of 1.8% m/m in October.