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Trump losing his patience with Zelenskiy

Ben Aris in Berlin March 16, 2026

US President Donald Trump is losing his patience with Ukraine after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy reached out to the White House last week calling for supplies and criticised the White House decision to temporarily ease sanctions on Russia.

IEA releases details of historic oil reserves release member shares

Ben Aris in Berlin March 16, 2026

The International Energy Agency released details of the contribution by members to the “largest release of oil reserves in history” that it announced on March 11 to calm the oil market and bring down prices.

Satellites show extent of Iranian precision strikes

Ben Aris in Berlin March 16, 2026

The Trump administration restricted access to real time commercial satellite images of the Middle East after images showed the effectiveness and extent of the damage Iranian powerful precision missile strikes have done to key US assets.

Israel planning to invade southern Lebanon

bne IntelliNews March 15, 2026

Israel is preparing plans for a large-scale ground offensive into southern Lebanon aimed at pushing the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah away from the border and dismantling its military infrastructure, according to US and Israeli officials.

Hamas urges Iran not to target Gulf states amid widening regional war

bne IntelliNews March 15, 2026

Hamas has called on Iran to refrain from attacking neighbouring countries, in a rare public appeal that highlights emerging strains within Tehran’s regional alliance network as conflict spreads across the Middle East.

COMMENT: whoever wins control of the Straits of Hormuz will control half of China's oil flow

bne IntelliNews March 15, 2026

A battle is looming for control of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most strategically important waterways in the world. Whoever controls the narrow passage between Iran and Oman effectively holds a lever over a large share of global energy flows.

Middle East war strains US air defence supplies needed by Ukraine

bne IntelliNews March 15, 2026

The scale of the fighting in the Middle East is eating into stockpiles that might otherwise have been available for Ukraine, the two conflicts in direct competition for the same limited supply of high-end defensive weapons.

Trump is fighting the Fremen in Iran

Ben Aris in Berlin March 14, 2026

“He who can destroy a thing, controls the thing,” said Paul Atreides, the protagonist, played by Kyle MacLachlan in David Lynch’s version of Frank Herbert’s legendary sci-fi film Dune. “He who controls the spice controls the universe!”

US bombs Kharg Island, prepares for possible ground invasion

Ben Aris in Berlin March 14, 2026

The US has bombed military installations on Iran’s critical Kharg island that is responsible for more than 90% of Iran’s oil exports and is moving thousands of troops into the Gulf in preparation for a possible ground invasion.

Gulf war tensions push geopolitical risk index to 9/11 highs - Oxford Economics

Ben Aris in Berlin March 13, 2026

The outbreak of what has been called “the worst energy disruption in history” by the IEA International Energy Agency (IEA) has sent the global geopolitical risk index to levels not seen since the 9/11 terrorist attacks on New York.

Asia and Europe to battle over dwindling LNG cargoes

Ben Aris in Berlin March 13, 2026

Asian and European energy buyers are competing to secure increasingly scarce LNG cargoes after conflict in the Middle East disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times reported on March 12.

Pattern of tanker missile strikes spread beyond chokepoints as maritime threat reaches ‘critical’ level

Ben Aris in Berlin March 13, 2026

Attacks on commercial vessels across the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters are intensifying and spreading beyond the traditional shipping lane chokepoint in the Straits of Hormuz, maritime security officials warned.

IEA calls Middle East oil shock "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market"

Ben Aris in Berlin March 13, 2026

The war in the Middle East is triggering what the International Energy Agency called "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market” in its latest monthly oil report.

Temporary US sanctions waiver for Russian oil fails to cool crude prices above $100

bne IntelliNews March 13, 2026

The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a 30-day general license on March 12 to purchase Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded on vessels before that day.

COMMENT: Iran's bankruptcy is its best weapon against the wealthy Gulf states

bne IntelliNews March 13, 2026

Gulf oil producers have lost an estimated $15.1bn in energy revenues since the war with Iran began, with $10.7bn in crude and LNG cargoes stranded inside the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran demands guarantees and reparations in ceasefire talks as Gulf mediators step in

Ben Aris in Berlin March 12, 2026

Iran has told regional intermediaries that any ceasefire with the US and Israel must be tied to sweeping security guarantees and compensation, as back-channel diplomacy intensifies amid a widening regional conflict. d

TEHRAN BLOG: Permits-for-passage system emerges as the US heads towards a strategic defeat in Iran

Ben Aris in Berlin March 12, 2026

A “permits-for-passage" system emerges as the US heads towards a strategic defeat in Iran after the White House makes a string of strategic blunders.

Middle East conflict drains $600mn a day from regional tourism

bne IntelliNews March 12, 2026

The Iran conflict is costing the Middle East tourism economy $600mn a day, WTTC said, with 4mn passengers stranded, 80,000 Dubai bookings cancelled and the region's $207bn annual visitor spending forecast now at serious risk.

Oil price above Russian budget benchmark, but cautious MinFin planning spending cuts

Ben Aris in Berlin March 12, 2026

The price of Russian crude rose above the level assumed in the country’s federal budget for the first time in more than a year on the back of turmoil on the international energy markets as the Middle East conflict reshapes Moscow’s finances.

Russia pockets €6bn in fossil fuel revenues in first two weeks of war

Ben Aris in Berlin March 12, 2026

Russia has pocketed over $6bn of excess revenues in just the first two weeks of war in Iran, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air said.

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