Lebanon

The West has split – Stubb

Ben Aris in Berlin March 23, 2026

Finland’s President Alexander Stubb has warned that relations between the US and Europe are fracturing under Donald Trump’s policies, urging allies to “salvage what you can” of the transatlantic alliance.

Russia could earn up to $252bn from Gulf War - KSE

Ben Aris in Berlin March 23, 2026

Russia could earn as much as $252bn in windfall export revenues from escalating conflict in the Middle East, as higher energy prices driven by tensions in the Persian Gulf bolster the Kremlin’s finances, according to analysis by KSE.

War will deepen Iran’s water crisis

Ben Aris in Berlin March 21, 2026

Iran already had a water problem before the US-Israel attack on February 28. Now it is going to get a lot worse.

Israeli strike kills three in rural village in Iran's East Azerbaijan province

bne IntelliNews March 20, 2026

Three killed and three wounded in a strike on a village in Iran's East Azerbaijan province, far from military targets, as attacks on civilian areas across Iran continue into the conflict's third week.

Israeli-US strike destroys 16 civilian cargo boats at Bandar Lengeh commercial dock

bne IntelliNews March 20, 2026

At least 16 civilian cargo boats destroyed in an Israeli-US strike on the commercial dock at Bandar Lengeh, a traditional trading port on the Strait of Hormuz that served as a lifeline for local communities.

US F-35 hit by Iranian fire in first confirmed hit on stealth jet

bne IntelliNews March 20, 2026

A US F-35 is hit by confirmed Iranian fire over central Iran , the first confirmed hit on the $100mn stealth jet since it entered service in 2015.

Iran begins charging vessels to transit Strait of Hormuz through IRGC-controlled 'safe corridor'

bne IntelliNews March 20, 2026

Iran begins charging up to $2mn per vessel for passage through a new IRGC-controlled "safe corridor" in the Strait of Hormuz, with India, China, Pakistan and Iraq among countries negotiating access.

TEHRAN BLOG: Iran's new year Nowruz is not the same this year

bnm IntelliNews March 20, 2026

For more than 3,000 years, Nowruz has been Iran's national festival, but this year's war has darkened the mood.

Iran’s permits-for-passage through Hormuz system is developing fast

Ben Aris in Berliin March 20, 2026

Iran has begun extracting payments of up to $2mn per tanker for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, as the informal permits-for-passage system allowing only tankers from “friendly countries” through develops quickly.

BEIRUTER: Lebanon’s Litani bridges at the centre of conflict with Israel

The Beiruter March 19, 2026

In a dangerous escalation in the current armed conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, the latter began targeted strikes on critical infrastructure, most notable bridges and routes in the south, drawing attention to Tel Aviv’s operational strategy.

ISTANBUL BLOG: Bedtime reading for Trump. Condemnation and denunciation from Arab and Islamic countries affirmed

Akin Nazli in Belgrade March 19, 2026

US Commander-in-Chief, meanwhile, says he told Netanyahu “don’t do that”. But he did do that.

ING: Energy markets brace for a prolonged supply disruption

Warren Patterson head of commodities strategy at ING March 19, 2026

There are few signs of de-escalation or a resumption in energy flows from the Persian Gulf. The market is having to reprice the duration of ongoing supply disruptions. We have updated our scenarios for oil and gas markets.

EU freezes plans to adopt Russian twentieth sanctions package due to Iran war turmoil, growing internal divisions

Ben Aris in Berlin March 19, 2026

The EU’s plans to adopt a twentieth sanctions package against Russia have been frozen due to a disruption caused by the war in Iran, according to a diplomatic source cited by TASS on March 16.

Quagmire in the Gulf: 13 points from when war games meets reality in US-Iran conflict

bne IntelliNews March 19, 2026

Three weeks into the war with Iran, the trajectory of the conflict is beginning to resemble some of the worst-case scenarios long modelled by policymakers and analysts, according to Ilan Goldenberg, a former US Department of Defence official.

Oman’s foreign minister tells the US some hard truths, because that’s what friends do

bne IntelliNews March 19, 2026

Oman has played a leading role in the mediation between the US and Iran trying to prevent the regional conflict that started two weeks ago. In a poignant opinion piece “America’s friends must help extricate it from an unlawful war."

IMO propose Hormuz shipping corridor to reopen Hormuz

Ben Aris in Berlin March 19, 2026

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has proposed the creation of a “safe shipping corridor” in the Strait of Hormuz, as dozens of countries look for solutions to unblock the crucial shipping channel.

UAE expels 2,500 Iranian students and shuts Iranian state schools

bne IntelliNews March 19, 2026

The UAE expels 2,500 Iranian students and shuts Iranian schools with a 50-year history in the country, as the war deepens the rift between Tehran and Gulf states.

Iran Kharg Island oil exports continue at 1.4mn bpd, as US set to unfreeze sanctions on oil tankers

bne IntelliNews March 19, 2026

Iran's Kharg Island oil exports continue at up to 1.5mn bpd despite US strikes, with core loading infrastructure intact and shipments flowing to Asian buyers.

COMMENT: US ground invasion to take control of Hormuz is extremely risky

Ben Aris in Berlin March 19, 2026

With some 5000 US military personnel on their way to the gulf analysts have been speculating that the White House is intending to try and take control of Strait of Hormuz with the ground invasion.

Dubai faces expat exodus as war shatters safe-haven reputation

bne IntelliNews March 19, 2026

Dubai faces its largest expat exodus in decades as the Iran war shatters its safe-haven reputation, with major banks evacuating staff, the stock market down 17% and the UAE mulling tax relief to retain residents.

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