Israel

Mission Impossible: Trump’s Iran campaign faces mounting setbacks as asymmetric tactics bite

Ben Aris in Berlin April 5, 2026

Iran's elite IRGC troops and mountain villagers joined forces in a manhunt for a down US pilot after Iran shot down a F-15 jet fighter over its territory. The US flew in special forces to try and find him.

This is "the worst oil crisis in history", says Goldman Sachs

Ben Aris in Berlin April 5, 2026

US investment bank Goldman Sachs says we are facing the “worst oil crisis in history” as a result of the shutdown of Gulf state hydrocarbon exports.

Rosatom warns of nuclear risk after reported strike near Iran's Bushehr plant

Ben Aris in Berlin April 5, 2026

Rosatom says a strike breached the protection circuit of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant, warning the risk of a catastrophic nuclear incident is rising sharply as Russian personnel are evacuated from the site.

Middle East conflict pushes global food prices up in March, FAO says

bne IntelliNews April 4, 2026

UN agency highlights broader economic impact of disruptions in key energy routes, as Strait of Hormuz closure “sent shockwaves across the global economy, with notable spillovers to the agricultural sector”.

IRGC has denied any link to the reported attack on US Embassy in Riyadh

Ben Aris in Berlin April 4, 2026

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has denied involvement in an ആക്രമ on the US embassy in Riyadh, describing the incident as an Israeli “false-flag operation”.

US and Israel strike Iranian petrochemical hub, raising fears of supply shocks

Ben Aris in Berlin April 4, 2026

The US and Israel struck Iran’s major petrochemical complex on April 4, damaging multiple facilities in the southern Mahshahr region and raising concerns over global supply disruptions in plastics and fertilisers.

Three tankers exit Hormuz hugging Omani coast

Ben Aris in Berlin April 4, 2026

In what appears to be the first exit from the Persian Gulf by oil tankers without permission from Iran, three large vessels linked to Oman left the Strait of Hormuz by hugging the sultanate’s coastline, Bloomberg reported on April 3.

Iran war accelerates Chinese US treasure bill sell off

Ben Aris in Berlin April 4, 2026

The war in Iran has triggered a potential step change in the rate that China is selling off its US Treasury bill holdings. T-bill holdings are a good barometer for geopolitical tensions. China and the BRICS are dumping their T-bills.

UPDATE: Iranian tribesmen hunt downed US f-15 pilot as Black Hawk allegedly shot down

bnm Gulf bureau April 3, 2026

Armed Iranian tribesmen are hunting for a downed US pilot in southwestern Iran as American forces deploy Black Hawks and a C-130 in a large-scale search, with reports of a US helicopter also shot down near the border.

Gulf Islamic sukuk bond spreads hit five-year highs amid Iran war uncertainty

Ben Aris in Berlin April 3, 2026

Yields on Gulf sovereign and corporate debt have surged to their widest spreads in five years as the war involving Iran drives a sharp reassessment of regional risk, according to Fitch Ratings.

Iran denies US helicopter assault on Kharg Island

bnm Gulf bureau April 3, 2026

Iran denied rumours of a US helicopter assault on Kharg Island, its main oil export hub, as speculation mounts over a possible ground operation targeting Iranian coastal infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.

US influence in the Gulf fades as Qatar, Oman strike deals with Tehran

Ben Aris in Berlin April 3, 2026

The US influence in the Gulf is fading as the war goes into its fifth week with no sign of ending and regional players are starting to cut deals with Tehran to end the attacks on their territories.

Iran publishes images of downed US F-15 it says belonged to UK-based squadron

bnm Gulf bureau April 3, 2026

Iran published images of what it said was a downed US fighter jet from the 48th Fighter Wing based at RAF Lakenheath.

Saudi Sadara petrochemical giant closed down creating a new plastics chokepoint

Ben Aris in Berlin April 3, 2026

Sadara Chemical Company, the $20bn joint venture between Saudi Aramco (Tadawul: 2222) and Dow Chemical Company (DOW), has halted all production at its Jubail complex in eastern Saudi Arabia indefinitely without a shot being fired by Iran.

Iran president Pezeshkian issues public letter to US public condemning US aggression

Ben Aris in Berlin April 3, 2026

Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian has issued a public letter addressed to the American people, defending Tehran’s actions in the face of what he called, “US unprovoked aggression”.

China blames US-Israeli 'illegal' war for Hormuz crisis and refuses to back Trump's 'just take it' call

bnm Gulf bureau April 2, 2026

China blamed the Hormuz crisis squarely on "US-Israel illegal military operations" and rejected Trump's call for countries to seize the strait, while declining to join the UK-led 35-nation shipping summit.

UPDATE: Eight killed as strike destroys Iran's landmark B1 bridge in Karaj

bnm Gulf bureau April 2, 2026

A US-Israeli strike on the B1 bridge in Alborz province killed eight people and wounded a number of residents and tourists.

MOSCOW BLOG: Pax Americana exposed as a paper tiger

Ben Aris in Berlin April 2, 2026

Superficially the war in Iran has dealt Ukraine a huge blow. The White House is now completely distracted, and the Trump administration seems to have abandoned, or at least paused, the ceasefire negotiations with Russia.

UK convenes 35-nation summit to plot Hormuz reopening as Washington stays away

bnm Gulf bureau April 2, 2026

The UK convened 35 nations to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz after 23 attacks on commercial ships, with the US, Iran and Oman all absent and Trump telling allies to secure the waterway themselves.

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