Garanti BBVA (GARAN) CEO Mahmut Akten anticipates an easing of the Turkish central bank’s benchmark rate at the regulator's next monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, albeit small, he told BloombergHT on June 24.

The chief of what is one of Turkey’s largest private lenders also predicted additional easing in September.

On July 23, the MPC will hold its fifth rate-setting meeting of the year.

Ceasefire takes effect, oil falls

With the fall in Brent crude oil prices following the latest ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, a revival of Turkey's rate-cutting cycle re-emerged as a possibility.

On May 14, the central bank raised its average Brent price forecast for 2026 to $89 from the $60s per barrel stated in the February report.

As of June 25, the Brent price was hovering in the $73s.

Derivatives bet means no change?

On June 19, Bloomberg quoted Alp Serbetli, head of treasury at ICBC Turkey’s brokerage unit, as saying that forward overnight indexed lira swaps, derivatives used to bet on future borrowing costs, had fallen by 275 basis points to around 38.2%.

The drop suggests that the central bank may keep rates unchanged in July while resuming one-week repo auctions, according to Serbetli.

Headline treads water at 37%

On June 11, at its last meeting, the central bank left its main policy rate (one-week repo) unchanged at 37% for a third consecutive time in line with expectations.

The regulator also left its overnight lending rate unchanged at 40%.

Effective rate 40%

On March 1, the national lender suspended its one-week repo auctions. The authority occasionally scraps or limits one-week repo auctions to push local lenders to the overnight window for the sake of additional tightening within the interest rate corridor.

As a result of the suspension, the central bank’s weighted average cost of funding and market rates (TLREF) rose to 40%. They remain there.

Goldman begs to differ

On June 22, Goldman Sachs spoke up, saying that it expects the repo rate to remain unchanged throughout the remainder of the year and the funding to be delivered at the overnight window until 4Q.

Goldman cited the rise in end-2026 inflation expectations through the 30%-level as the reason behind its 'no easing' forecast.