FPRI BMB Ukraine: Moscow trying regime change in Ukraine?

FPRI BMB Ukraine: Moscow trying regime change in Ukraine?
Reports are coming in of Russia approaching local officials in Ukraine and asking if they will take over the administration of their regions if Russia installs a new government. / wiki
By FPRI BMB Ukraine March 16, 2022

Having underestimated both the military and the civil resistance Russian forces would face in Ukraine, Moscow now confronts an even greater problem as it struggles to find pro-Kremlin politicians that could potentially serve their interests in the occupied territories. In the occupied city of Melitopol, near the south-eastern coast, Mayor Ivan Fedorov was reportedly abducted and accused of terrorism by prosecutors from the self-proclaimed Luhansk “People’s Republic.”

In his place, former city council member Galina Danilchenko claimed that she had been chosen as the acting mayor. In a video posted on Telegram, she urged Melitopol’s inhabitants “not to destabilise the situation” and not to take part in “extremist acts.” She mentioned the need to “adjust all mechanisms to the new reality” and called on other councillors to co-operate to set up a “committee of people’s deputies.”

The other members of the city council swiftly protested. They accused Danilchenko of dissolving the city government, and even of transferring its powers to a People’s Deputies Committee. On Saturday, March 12, several hundred people protested against Mayor Fedevor’s disappearance. Ukrayinska Pravda also reports that activists have created a “register of state traitors,” which already includes Galina Danilchenko.

Given the fierce resistance put up by both the residents and elected officials of a city like Melitopol, it is difficult to imagine that Russia will succeed in installing a pro-Kremlin regime in Kyiv  especially as no ideal candidate stands out. It is also important to handle the label “pro-Russian” with care. Having promoted a rapprochement with Moscow in “normal” times does not mean that so-called “pro-Russian” politicians in Ukraine would necessarily be ready or willing to become the Kremlin's puppets in a Ukraine devastated by war.

Before Russia launched its full-scale invasion, London had publicly named former lawmaker Yevhen Murayev as a potential Kremlin “candidate” for leading a new government, despite his very low popularity in Ukraine. At the time, Murayev who heads his own opposition party called Nashi and often echoes Kremlin rhetoric in his discourse  denied the allegations. So far, however, Murayev still has not publicly condemned the Russian invasion.

In theory, the “ideal” candidate could have been the oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk, a prominent member of the pro-Russian party Opposition Platform For Life, known for his close ties to Vladimir Putin (the Russian president is said to be the godfather of his daughter). Accused of high treason in spring 2021, the oligarch was placed under house arrest in Kyiv. But he has been untraceable since he fled house arrest in the days after the war began. 

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This article originally appeared in FPRI's BMB Ukraine newsletter. Click here to learn more about BMB Ukraine and subscribe to the newsletter.

 

 

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