Exactly 24 hours before the first US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, Middle East Eye (MEE) posted an article on its homepage titled: “China has sent attack drones to Iran, as it discusses ballistic missile sales” highlighting Beijing’s increasing support of the regime in Tehran in the immediate run up to conflict.

At the time citing three officials with insider knowledge, MEE reported that as the US – then – was moving closer to potential military action against the Islamic Republic, China had been increasing its support for Iran by supplying attack drones alongside additional air defence systems

Conflicting reports followed, with MEE claiming one Arab official had described the hardware supplied by Beijing as little more than small-scale systems, while a regional intelligence official indicated that Iran had in fact been the recipient of loitering munitions, also known as kamikaze drones. Another account pointed to the transfer of both offensive weapons and air defence systems being closer to reality.

As has been reported multiple times over the years leading up to the outbreak of the war, Chinese-made loitering munitions have previously appeared in other conflicts around the world. The reported supply of such systems to Iran by China is, however, taken by some as evidence that even as Beijing and Washington were scheduling a bilateral meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his American counterpart Donald Trump, the People’s Liberation Army in Beijing was actively shipping out munitions and associated hardware to be used to inflict damage on US and Israeli military forces in the region should fighting break out.

According to MEE, systems now identified in Iranian service include the Chinese-made HQ-16 (Hongqi-16, meaning “Red Banner-16) - a Chinese medium-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system designed to intercept aircraft, cruise missiles and some types of incoming guided weapons, and the HQ-17AE – a SAM system designed for point defence against low-altitude aerial threats such as drones, helicopters, cruise missiles and precision-guided munitions.

The provision of attack drones at the time too may have been a means of Beijing playing for time as it sat and watched how the war panned out before agreeing to the supply of more advanced missile systems MEE speculated six weeks ago. But with a ceasefire currently in place – albeit hanging by a thread at times – more recent intelligence cited by a number of sources points to Tehran once more looking to replenish its depleted air defences – and China potentially preparing more shipments of offensive systems including shoulder-fired missiles known as MANPADS. These highly mobile and easy to disguise weapons posed an asymmetric threat to low-flying US aircraft during the five-week conflict and could do so again if hostilities resume. The same sources suggest such hardware making its way from Beijing to Tehran could be routed via third countries to avoid direct attribution to China.

Yet with Donald Trump due to visit China in early May for talks with Xi Jinping, the White House has said Xi “assured” the US leader that China is not supplying weapons to Iran during the current conflict; Forbes reporting that Trump himself has claimed Xi responded in writing denying arms transfers after being asked directly.

Chinese officials at different levels of government meanwhile have stuck to the Communist Party line, publicly rejecting allegations of arms supplies altogether, calling them untrue or fabricated; claims that analysts are already taking with a pinch of salt.

CNN reports that China’s embassy in Washington has also rejected these claims, saying Beijing had not provided weapons to any party in the conflict while urging the US to avoid unfounded allegations and actions that could inflame tensions. Earlier, the embassy reportedly said China had sought to facilitate a ceasefire to end the conflict.

Meanwhile, adding to the claims and counter-claims, Trump said on April 13 that an F-15 fighter jet shot down over Iran prior to the ceasefire, had been struck by a shoulder-launched, heat-seeking missile. In response, Tehran said it had used a new air defence system without providing further details, and it remains unclear whether the system was of Chinese origin.

To this end, any shipment of Chinese MANPADS or any other hardware before or after Trump’s visit to China in May would mark a serious escalation in Beijing’s support for Iran with the ceasefire still holding, and efforts ongoing to extend the current April 22 expiration date. Trump himself has said in the past week that the conflict in Iran was close to ending

Yet despite repeated denials from Beijing and Chinese officials in Washington, intelligence assessments and regional sources continue to point in the same direction. The consistency of the claims, and the pattern of Chinese-origin systems appearing in Iranian hands, is fuelling a growing belief that official Chinese statements are somewhat detached from reality, and do little to mask Beijing’s ongoing role in arming Tehran.