Some African economies are winners from the Iran war. From Kenya to Nigeria, they are registering sharp gains in trade, aviation and energy revenues as the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran disrupts traditional shipping and air corridors, cutting traffic through the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz by an estimated 90%.

The sudden rehash of the traditional global shipping routes, trying to find a way around the conflict, has elevated parts of Africa into critical logistics hubs.

Kenya: Kenya’s Lamu port, long criticised as underused infrastructure, has recorded a 974% increase in cargo volumes, as ultra-large vessels avoid Gulf routes and turn instead to its deep-water berths.

Ethiopia: Ethiopian Airlines has also capitalised on the disruption. With Gulf airspace constrained by security risks, Addis Ababa has emerged as a key transit hub, pushing cargo revenues up 14% as electronics, pharmaceuticals and perishable goods are redirected through Bole International Airport.

Nigeria: Higher oil prices have provided a parallel windfall for Nigeria. Brent crude rose to $120 per barrel in March, well above the government’s budget benchmark of $64.85, effectively doubling daily oil revenues and strengthening public finances. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, owned by Dangote Industries, has moved to expand exports, issuing a tender for 84,000 metric tonnes of jet fuel and diesel as it positions itself as an alternative to disrupted Gulf supplies.

South Africa: Southern Africa has also benefited from shifting maritime flows. Durban has improved efficiency, reaching 28 crane moves per hour as it handles vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Namibia’s Walvis Bay has seen bunkering demand rise 30%, becoming a key refuelling stop for long-haul shipping.

Marocco: In North Africa, Royal Air Maroc has expanded its international network, adding 10 routes including Los Angeles and Beirut, contributing to a 12% increase in Casablanca passenger traffic. Mauritius has similarly leveraged its position, reporting a 15% rise in revenues from logistics and repair services.

Mozambique: Mozambique’s $20bn ($20bn) liquefied natural gas project, led by TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA), has been accelerated, with more than 4,000 workers deployed to bring forward production timelines. At the Port of Maputo, cargo volumes have risen 16% as exporters shift away from northern routes.

The crisis has also prompted operational innovations. In Lamu, roll-on/roll-off shipping is being used to move vehicles via smaller vessels to avoid war risk insurance premiums exceeding $200,000 for larger carriers entering the Strait of Hormuz.

Kenya and Ethiopia have launched joint military operations to secure the Lamu Port–South Sudan–Ethiopia Transport corridor, aiming to protect the infrastructure underpinning this emerging trade route.

At the same time, Nairobi and Addis Ababa have become key nodes in an emergency air bridge linking Asia and Europe, replacing a 17,700km maritime detour caused by the disruption.

The geopolitical backdrop remains volatile, with the conflict driving both humanitarian costs and economic dislocation, even as parts of Africa experience an unexpected surge in strategic importance.