Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was in Berlin on December 14 to meet top EU leaders and appears to be trying to stitch together a string of bi-lateral security deals that would allow him to conclude a peace deal with Moscow.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that there is a significant chance of reaching an agreement to end the conflict with Russia, as he travelled to Berlin in a post on his Telegram channel.

"We will be working as actively and constructively as possible in Berlin these days with everyone who can truly make the agreement work," he wrote.

But he added that, "the peace plan will not be one that pleases everyone," Zelenskyy said. There are compromise proposals. "The most important thing is that the plan is as fair as possible, especially for Ukraine. The most important thing is that it is effective," he said.

The Kremlin is watching the talks close and is sceptical much progress will be made. Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s top foreign policy advisor, made it clear that Russia would not back down from its territorial demands for a peaceful solution to the conflict. Moscow demands that Kyiv withdraw its troops from those areas in the Donbas that Russia has not yet been able to capture, and which remain under Ukrainian control.

Tough nut to crack

Following the Moscow meeting on December 3 between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the US special envoys a great deal of progress has been made. The talks produced a slightly modified 27-point peace plan (27PPP) which Putin said in a long interview Putin gave to Indian journalists the next day was largely in line with a framework agreement he thrashed out with US President Donald Trump) during the Alaska summit on August 15.

While Putin said there were several points on the list that were “unacceptable” to the Kremlin, the talks are clearly zeroing in on the two key issues: security guarantees and the status of the occupied territories.

These will be hard nuts to crack as both Putin and Zelenskiy have dug their heels in over their respective positions. But as the talks go into a third and the substantial round in the month-long negotiations since the original 28-point peace plan (28PPP) was released, progress is being made as time on the talks runs down.

Trump reportedly wants a deal before Christmas and has threatened several times to walk away from the conflict entirely if a deal is not done. He has also piled pressure on Zelenskiy several times in recent days, rebuking him for not reading the new US version of the plan and painting him as the main obstacle to peace.

Likewise, with the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) making rapid gains on the battlefield, Putin has also made it clear that he feels no pressure and will finish the fight using force if Bankova does not offer an acceptable compromise.

The E3 (France, Britain and Germany) have been pushing for a better deal for Ukraine and proposed several revised versions of the peace plan, but Trump has rejected them and effectively excluded them from the negotiations.

Nevertheless, Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff was invited to attend the Berlin meeting on December 14. The Americans' invitation to the meeting only came after a tense phone call the day before between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Keir UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer with Trump, during which voices were raised, Ukrainska Pravda reports. Trump later acknowledged the disagreement, saying "some pretty strong words" were used during the conversation. As bne IntelliNews has reported, a deep rift has developed between the US and Europe on how best to help Ukraine and Washington and Brussels are now actively working against each other.

Security guarantees & Nato are key

In the midst of these tensions and squabbling partners, Zelenskiy appears to be trying to stitch together a package of security deals to ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty over the long-term.

Some European countries did not support Ukraine's accession to Nato as a security guarantee within the framework of negotiations around the US administration's peace plan.

"Some partners, both in the United States and in Europe, did not support this direction. And that is why today, bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the United States of America, namely guarantees similar to Article 5 from the United States of America for us and security guarantees from European colleagues for us, as well as other countries: Canada, Japan, etc., these security guarantees for us are an opportunity to prevent another coming of Russian aggression," he said, Ukrainska Pravda reports.

As bne IntelliNews reported, the US has offered real Article 5-like security guarantees that include coming to Ukraine military aid should Russia reinvade.

A senior American official said that the Trump administration is ready to provide Ukraine with a guarantee based on Nato's Article 5, which will be approved by Congress and will have legal force.

"We want to provide Ukrainians with a security guarantee that, on the one hand, will not be a "blank check," and on the other, will be strong enough. We are ready to send it to Congress for a vote," an American official said Axios reports.

He said that three separate agreements on peace, security guarantees and reconstruction would be concluded, and that the latest talks had for the first time given Ukrainians "a full vision of the next day."

"Under the current proposal, the war would end with Ukraine retaining sovereignty over 80% of its territory, receiving the largest and strongest security guarantee it has ever received, and receiving a very significant prosperity package," the official added.

The EU has only offered “security assurances” that do not contain a military collective security promise, stopping short at a promise to send peacekeepers that is unworkable and has already been rejected out of hand by the Kremlin.

Zelenskiy suggested over the weekend that a collection of bilateral agreements may be sufficient to reassure Ukrainians that Russia would be deterred from a second invasion. The lack of security deals was what undid the failed 2022 Istanbul peace deal.

The Ukrainian president also hinted to journalists while on his way to Berlin that Ukraine may be willing to give up its Nato ambitions and return to the neutrality enshrined in its constitution before 2014. The Ukrainian delegation already suggested this as part of the Brest peace talks in the first month of the war.

Last week, Zelenskiy also suggested that Bankova may be willing to compromise on the question of territories, by suggesting that he could hold a referendum and put the question to the people as the constitution bans giving any land away. Zelenskiy already suggested holding a referendum on the land question last year, when he said he wanted to end the war by the end of 2024.

However, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the Kremlin was opposed to the idea of a referendum as it would not halt hostilities while it was organised, giving the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) time to regroup and resupply. The Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) has been making the most significant gains this year since the war started nearly four years ago.