South Korea’s real GDP per capita is projected to fall more than $10,000 behind Taiwan’s within five years, according to the International Monetary Fund, underscoring a widening divergence between the two export-led economies.

According to The Korea Times, having lost its lead over Taiwan, an island of just 24mn with less than half the population of South Korea for the first time in 22 years in 2025, Seoul is expected to see the gap increase over the next few years, with little prospect of reversal over the medium term.

Data compiled by the Bank of Korea and other financial authorities, based on the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, positions South Korea’s GDP per capita at $37,412 in 2026, up 3.3% from $36,227 a year earlier and projected to surpass $40,000 in 2028 by reaching $40,695. This marks an acceleration from earlier projections.

Taiwan, however, is expected to reach that same threshold somewhat sooner with its GDP per capita now forecast to rise 6.6% from $39,489 in 2025 to $42,103 in the current year. In turn this will allow it to exceed $40,000 well ahead of South Korea with momentum expected to remain strong, with the country’s GDP per capita projected to surpass $50,000 by as early as 2029.

The Korea Times adds that the income gap between the two economies is forecast to widen consistently, from $4,691 in 2026 up to $9,073 in 2030. By 2031, however, Taiwan’s GDP per capita is projected at $56,101, compared with South Korea’s $46,019 – a difference of $10,082.

In global rankings, Taiwan is expected to climb from 32nd to 30th place, while South Korea is forecast to slip from 40th to 41st.

Taiwan’s stronger performance is being driven by the global semiconductor upcycle, particularly demand linked to increases in AI adoption. According to the Korea Center for International Finance, major global investment banks had, by the end of March, forecast Taiwan’s economic growth at an average of 7.1% for 2026, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions caused by the war in the Middle East. South Korea’s growth meanwhile is only expected to remain in the upper 1% range.