Russia intends to redirect agricultural import contracts away from Armenia and towards Azerbaijan, a senior Kremlin envoy said on June 3, citing Baku's superior export capacity as Moscow's trade restrictions on Yerevan deepen ahead of Armenian parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7.

Boris Titov, the special representative of the Russian president for relations with international organisations for achieving sustainable development goals, told reporters on the sidelines of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) that Azerbaijan would compensate for volumes lost from Armenia. "We will replace what we are losing in Armenia with Azerbaijan, because it is completely unambiguous that in agriculture Azerbaijan can do more and gives more than Armenia," Titov said on June 3.

Moscow has significantly expanded phytosanitary and veterinary restrictions on Armenian produce since early spring. As Jam News reported, Russia banned imports of tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, herbs and strawberries from Armenia from May 30, following earlier curbs on Jermuk mineral water, alcoholic beverages, flowers and ornamental plants. From June 3, Russia's Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) extended restrictions to pome fruits, eggplants, potatoes and dried fruits of Armenian origin. Russian authorities have attributed the measures to sanitary and phytosanitary concerns; Armenian analysts widely regard them as politically motivated.

Moscow has also raised the stakes beyond agriculture. Armenia received a letter warning that Russia could terminate agreements governing supplies of natural gas, petroleum products and rough diamonds. According to Interfax, the letter stated that Armenia's continued efforts to deepen cooperation with the European Union, combined with its declared ambition to seek EU membership, "threaten the future of Russian-Armenian trade, economic and investment cooperation." Armenia's Foreign Ministry said it would review the letter and respond if necessary.

Titov added that Armenia's potential EU accession would trigger energy price shocks for the republic's population, as Yerevan currently receives hydrocarbons at rates significantly below European market prices. He said similar cost pressures would ripple through the food sector for both imported goods and domestic market prices.

For Azerbaijan, the episode represents an unsolicited commercial opening. Baku has maintained functioning, if transactional, economic ties with Moscow throughout the post-2022 period. Its agricultural sector, which exports fruit, vegetables and other produce to Russia, is positioned to absorb additional Russian demand should Yerevan's market share contract. Titov's remarks signal that this reorientation is now explicit Russian policy rather than a market-driven consequence.

Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said Yerevan would review Moscow's letter and respond if necessary, adding that similar disputes had arisen before and that Armenia remained committed to resolving them in a "constructive and partnership-based atmosphere." Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Armenia had no plans to leave the Eurasian Economic Union and that anyone relying on threats and pressure was "digging a grave" for the bloc itself. "Today, Armenia matters to the East, the West, the South and the North alike. Those who rely on threats and pressure are making a mistake. The Armenian economy faces no danger," Pashinyan said.

Multiple analysts have characterised the timing of the restrictions as an attempt to strengthen pro-Russian parties ahead of the June 7 vote. Political analyst Robert Ghevondyan, cited by Jam News, argued the measures are directly linked to the elections and predicted Moscow would likely lift them once the electoral period passes, given that prolonged restrictions serve limited Russian commercial interests and are unlikely to shift Armenia's domestic political balance. He noted that Russia itself faces stable consumer demand for Armenian products — including mineral water, produce and brandy — meaning full decoupling carries real costs for Russian importers. Ghevondyan also cautioned that Armenia's long-term vulnerability lies in its dependence on the Upper Lars transit corridor and the absence of open borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan, both of which constrain Armenian export diversification regardless of political developments. Jam News noted that Russia has previously deployed analogous trade tools against Georgia and Moldova during periods of political tension.