Only one item needs to be resolved in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said on January 22 following a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US President Donald Trump in Davos.

“I think we’ve got it down to one issue, and we have discussed iterations of that issue, and that means it’s solvable,” said Witkoff during a panel at the World Economic Forum (WEF), Al Jazeera reported. “If both sides want to solve this, we’re going to get it solved.”

As bne IntelliNews reported, Zelenskiy was not intending to participate in the annual meeting in the Swiss ski resort after planned talks with the US team were delayed by the Greenland issue. But after Trump mentioned in his hour-long speech the day before that he was looking forward to meeting Zelenskiy, the US president scrambled transport and arrived in Davos earlier today.

A lot of progress has been made in the negotiations in the last month, with a 27-point peace plan (27PPP) thrashed out between the US envoys and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Moscow meeting on December 3, countered by Zelenskiy’s 20-point peace plan (20PPP) submitted to the Kremlin on Christmas Eve.

However, two major sticking points have remained: land and security guarantees. Putin has insisted that Ukraine give up the last 15% of the Donetsk region the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) still does not contain that includes the “Fortress Line” of heavy defences built by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), which Bankova has repeatedly refused to do. At the same time Zelenskiy has been insisting on real Article 5-like security guarantees from his Western partners that he has so far failed to secure.

From Witkoff’s comments it appears that the security guarantees question for Ukraine may have been resolved. As part of the 27PPP offer, the White House did include a 10-year security guarantee for Ukraine that includes a military collective action guarantee that meets most of Bankova’s demands for assurances to secure its sovereignty and offers a real disincentive for a second Russian invasion.

At the Mar-a-Lago meeting on December 28 between Zelenskiy and Trump, the Ukrainian president was asking for the duration of this deal to be extended to 15 years, but neither side reported any conclusion to those talks.

According to bne IntelliNews Russian sources the sticking point now is security guarantees for Russia, which have not been much publicly discussed, but have been a concern for the Kremlin. Putin wants assurances that if a deal is done, a new Ukrainian president and a change of guard in the West will not decide to try and retake Russia’s occupied territory with a new military campaign in the future. The Kremlin has been psuhing for legally binding recognition of its sovereignty over the Crimea and the four regions it annexed in 2022, however, one of the formulas discussed has been de facto recognition of Russia’s control of the land, but not its de jura ownership of it.

Any deal would also need Kyiv to accept the disputed and demilitarized status for Donbass under Russia police and RosGardia control as opposed to creating a Korean DMZ-model where the land is left empty – another point that has not been discussed widely in public during the talks.

It also emerged at Mar-a-Lago that the status of Russian-occupied territories and, in particular, control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe and currently held by Russian forces, has also emerged as a point of contention. The US has proposed the plant be jointly owned by Russia and Ukraine with the US acting as the operator. Bankova suggested that it be jointly owned by Ukraine and the US, but the US side would be free to sell power to Russia if it chose to. However, this point also seems to have been solved.

Even if a security guarantee deal has been agreed between Trump and Zelenskiy, Putin will still need to sign off on it before any ceasefire can be announced.

Poignantly, Witkoff is due to fly to Moscow on January 23 together with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner for another meeting with Putin where presumably the details of any agreement between Trump and Zelenskiy will be presented to the Russian president for approval.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov welcomed Witkoff’s diplomatic engagement but declined to comment on the suggestion that an agreement was close.

Zelenskiy’s spokesperson, Sergii Nykyforov, said the Ukrainian president had arrived in Davos and would address the WEF following his meeting with Trump. Zelenskiy previously said he would only attend the forum if there was a credible opportunity to sign an agreement that includes security guarantees and post-war reconstruction funding.

Trump said a day earlier during his speech to the forum that the conflict was nearing resolution. “I believe they’re at a point now where they can come together and get a deal done. And if they don’t, they’re stupid – that goes for both of them,” he said following his keynote address at the WEF.

Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte welcomed Washington’s efforts but warned that Kyiv still needed urgent support. “What we need is to keep our eyes on the ball of Ukraine. Let’s not drop that ball. And that means. Yes, great, peace talks. Fantastic. We will do everything to conclude them successfully, but that will not happen tomorrow,” he said.

The talks come amid intensified Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure that has plunged many cities into darkness. This week, most of Kyiv was left without electricity, with some 3,000 buildings losing heating during one of the coldest January’s in a decade as Putin attempts to freeze Ukraine into submission.