By the end of 2024, Uzbekistan's national debt is expected to reach $39.7bn, representing 35.5% of the country's GDP, according to a report from Gazeta.uz. 

In 2025, the debt level could climb by 13.3%, bringing the total to $45bn, or 36.4% of GDP. 

Projections for 2027 suggest a further increase, with the debt predicted as likely to reach $55.9bn, although the debt-to-GDP ratio will likely stabilise at 36.7%.

In line with its proposed state budget, the government plans to raise its external borrowing limit to $5.5bn next year, up from $5bn in 2024. Of this amount, $3bn will be allocated to budget support, while the remaining $2.5bn will fund various investment projects. 

To diversify its debt portfolio and reduce currency exposure, the government also plans to limit net government securities issuance to UZS 30 trillion ($2.34bn) in 2025, up from UZS 25 trillion ($1.95bn) this year.

The proposed budget for 2025 includes UZS 18.8 trillion ($1.47bn) for state programmes financed through foreign debt, an increase from UZS 11.8 trillion ($920.1mn) in 2024. 

As the scale of these programmes grows, debt servicing costs are also on the rise. The portion of funds allocated to debt servicing in the consolidated budget — covering the state budget, target state funds, and the Fund for Reconstruction and Development of Uzbekistan — is projected to increase from 7.5% to 9.6%.

It is anticipated debt repayments will reach UZS 46.08 trillion ($3.59bn), of which UZS 21.1 trillion ($1.65bn) will cover interest payments alone. This marks a jump from 2024, for which debt repayments are forecast at UZS 32.27 trillion ($2.55bn), including UZS 16.4 trillion ($1.28bn) to cover interest.

The government has also introduced a cap of $6.5bn on the value of new public-private partnership (PPP) projects that involve financial commitments from the state. The move is aimed at managing potential budgetary risks and ensuring sustainable growth.

In response to rising debt levels, the government has committed to a fiscal rule that limits the consolidated budget deficit to within 3% of GDP. Future foreign borrowing will be directed toward high-return projects to slow the rate of debt accumulation relative to GDP.

By the first quarter of 2022, private debt stood at $15.4bn, contributing to a gross external debt of $43.3bn. 

According to the International Monetary Fund's July report, Uzbekistan’s gross external debt reached $55.7bn in 2023, representing 61.3% of GDP. By mid-2024, this figure had risen to $63.8bn, as per the Central Bank.

As of July 1, Uzbekistan's state debt surpassed $37bn, comprising $30.9bn in foreign debt and $6.1bn in domestic debt—a 17% y/y increase amounting to $5.4bn.

Since 2017, Uzbekistan's debt has more than tripled, driven largely by investments in budget support, energy and infrastructure initiatives.