The US, EU and Ukraine are thrashing out a security package to protect Ukraine from future Russian aggression that is part Article 5-like collective security guarantees and part military muscle on the ground.

The main thrust of the proposals is to bring the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to a "peaceful level" of 800,000 servicemen with modern equipment and training, so that they can be a "powerful deterrent to Russia."

That would give Ukraine by far the largest army in Europe, which would also be an extremely heavy burden on the post-war government. Currently, Turkey has the largest army in Europe with a total of around 350,000. Germany’s standing army is 180,000. The Finnish model is to maintain a small army of only 25,000 active troops but it has an enormous reservist force of some 900,000 – 16% of the entire population – all highly trained and well equipped.

Germany also has roughly the same number who are eligible as reservists, but only some 40,000 of these are considered active and trained, which is only 0.05% of the population. Germany suspended conscription in 2011, which sharply reduced reserve inflows, but German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently proposed restarting national service to bolster the numbers.

The draft proposal also includes plans for an “European-led multinational force” to be stationed in Ukraine – something that the Kremlin will reject out of hand. Russia’s invaded Ukraine in 2022 precisely because the West refused to rule out Ukraine’s Nato membership so the idea of Nato-linked troops stationed in Ukraine is anathema to Russian President Vladimir Putin and a deal-killer.

Officials declined to name the countries that would deploy troops in Ukraine, but Zelenskiy said on December 16 that several countries had privately promised to do so. The force is a revival of the earlier idea of peacekeepers was previously ruled out as an unworkable idea. These troops will be based in western Ukraine, away from the frontline, to serve as an additional deterrent to any future aggression by Russia.

The idea of peacekeepers is a fudge that Europe hopes will act as a deterrent for Russia. It allows European Nato members to avoid committing to a full Article 5-like security guarantee where they commit to a collective security agreement that includes a military component that will come to Ukraine’s aid should Russia re-invade.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz praised the US initiative but stopped short of suggesting that Germany or its EU allies offer the same deal.

"The fact that the Americans have undertaken such a commitment - to defend Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire, as if it were NATO territory - I believe that this is a new position of the United States of America that deserves attention," he added Reuters reports.

Surprisingly, the Trump administration has made just this commitment in a draft Article 5-like security guarantee proposal that does include sending US troops to fight shoulder to shoulder with the AFU should Russia renew its attack.

Rather than sign off on a real security guarantees, Europe continues to offer the watered down security assurances that include money and arms, but not military support. That commitment was renewed at the 32nd Ramstein format meeting of the Contact Group on Defence Issues of Ukraine this week. Ukraine’s Defence Minister Denys Shmyhal announced commitments from partners regarding long-term support for Ukraine that runs into the billions of euros of weapons commitments by European partners. Europe is also ramping up investments into Ukraine’s defence sector under the Danish model of joint ventures.