Ukraine expects to get a new loan tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s $17.5bn support package in the first quarter of 2018, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said in a statement published on October 26.
"The NBU expects that next tranche will be received in the first quarter. Along with a surplus of the overall balance of payments, this is expected to drive international reserves up to $22.2bn or 4.2 months of future imports by the end of 2018," the statement reads.
Earlier, Ukraine and the IMF failed to agree a new price-setting formula for domestic gas tariffs, which is crucial for the continuation of existing funding programmes, notably the $17.5bn bailout agreed with the IMF in 2015. The greenlighting of pension reform and creation of a specialised anti-corruption court are among other steps that are necessary for further IMF funding.
The NBU also said in the statement that the current account deficit will continue to hover around $4bn between 2017 and 2019 and that it will be fully offset by financial account inflows.
"The NBU, however, sees a number of risks to this forecast," the regualtor added. "The temporary supply factors that drove up raw food prices this year and caused consumption to pick up further amid higher social standards could increase fundamental pressure on inflation. In addition, the Ukrainian economy could become more vulnerable if external official financing under the [IMF's programme] is delayed."
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