GDP growth is expected to come in at 3.3% this year, in line with the government’s revised estimate (in the medium term programme), economy minister Nihat Zeybekci said on December 26.
GDP growth slowed sharply to 1.7% y/y in the third quarter from 2.2% in the previous and 4.8% y/y in Q1. The Turkish economy expanded by 2.8% y/y in the first nine months of the year. This week, the World Bank (WB) said in its Turkey Regular Economic Note that it downgraded the 2014 growth estimate to 3.1% from its October forecast of 3.5% while it maintained the 2015 growth forecast at 3.5%. The Central Bank’s monthly survey showed the economy is expected to grow 3% this year and 3.5% in 2015.
Zeybekci also said that he expects the current account deficit to be around 5.1%-5.2% of GDP at the end of 2014. The WB expects the current account shortfall to shrink to $38.4bn next year (4.5% of GDP) from an estimated $44.9bn (5.6% of GDP) this year.
| GDP Growth Projections for Turkey | ||
| (%) | 2014 | 2015 |
| EBRD (Sep 2014) | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| European Commission (Nov 2014) | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| Turkish Government - Medium Term Programme for 2015-2017 (Oct 2014) | 3.3 | 4.0 |
| IMF (Nov 2014) | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Turkish Central Bank survey (Dec 2014) | 3.0 | 3.5 |
| World Bank (Dec 2014) | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| OECD (Nov 2014) | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| Fitch (Dec 2014) | 3.0 | 3.3 |
| S&P (Nov 2014) | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| Source: ebrd, ec, dpt, imf, tcmb, oecd, world bank, s&p | ||
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