Turkish economy minister sees 2014 growth at 3.3%, current account deficit at around 5%

By bne IntelliNews December 26, 2014

GDP growth is expected to come in at 3.3% this year, in line with the government’s revised estimate (in the medium term programme), economy minister Nihat Zeybekci said on December 26.

GDP growth slowed sharply to 1.7% y/y in the third quarter from 2.2% in the previous and 4.8% y/y in Q1. The Turkish economy expanded by 2.8% y/y in the first nine months of the year. This week, the World Bank (WB) said in its Turkey Regular Economic Note that it downgraded the 2014 growth estimate to 3.1% from its October forecast of 3.5% while it maintained the 2015 growth forecast at 3.5%. The Central Bank’s monthly survey showed the economy is expected to grow 3% this year and 3.5% in 2015.

Zeybekci also said that he expects the current account deficit to be around 5.1%-5.2% of GDP at the end of 2014. The WB expects the current account shortfall to shrink to $38.4bn next year (4.5% of GDP) from an estimated $44.9bn (5.6% of GDP) this year.

GDP Growth Projections for Turkey
(%) 2014 2015
EBRD (Sep 2014) 3.0 3.2
European Commission (Nov 2014) 2.8 3.3
Turkish Government - Medium Term Programme for 2015-2017 (Oct 2014) 3.3 4.0
IMF (Nov 2014) 3.0 3.0
Turkish Central Bank survey (Dec 2014) 3.0 3.5
World Bank (Dec 2014) 3.1 3.5
OECD (Nov 2014) 3.0 3.2
Fitch (Dec 2014) 3.0 3.3
S&P (Nov 2014) 2.9 3.0
Source: ebrd, ec, dpt, imf, tcmb, oecd, world bank, s&p
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