Foreign trade deficit widened 7.6% y/y to USD 7.5bn, completely in line with market consensus forecast.

Exports rose 1.3% y/y to USD 13.12bn in September after falling 13.1% in the previous month, the statistics institute (TUIK) said on Thursday. Imports increased 3.5% y/y to USD 20.62bn in the month with consumer goods imports and capital goods imports rising 16.5% y/y and 16.2% y/y respectively. The rise in intermediate goods imports was a limited 1.6% y/y and this could be sign of moderation in industrial activity. Precious metals import (gold) was down 3.7% y/y to USD 465mn but gold exports plunged nearly 63% y/y to USD 600mn.

Turkey’s energy import bill fell 5.8% y/y to USD 4.9bn in September and declined 7.3% y/y to USD 41.4bn in the first nine months of the year.

Turkey’s exports to the EU rose 10.2% y/y to USD 5.62bn and the EU’s share in total exports increased to 42.8% in September from 39.4% a year ago. If EU economies continue to expand next year this will support Turkey’s export revenues.

Exports to the Middle East fell 22.6% y/y to USD 2.97bn (corresponds to 22.6% of Turkey’s total exports) while shipments to Africa rose 5% to USD 1.1bn (8.2% share in total). Turkey saw a 10% increase in its exports to North America, amounting to USD 518mn (4% share in total).

On a calendar adjusted basis, exports recorded a 1.3% y/y increase while the seasonally & calendar adjusted exports rose 2.7% m/m. Calendar adjusted imports were down 0.2% y/y and seasonally & calendar adjusted imports rose 3% m/m in September.

In January-September, Turkey’s exports fell 0.4% to USD 113bn, imports rose 6% y/y to USD 188bn, leading to a foreign trade gap of USD 75bn, representing a 17.3% increase.

The government revised its foreign trade deficit estimate for 2013 to USD 98bn from USD 95bn. The government expects a foreign trade gap of USD 95.5bn next year while its export and import forecasts are USD 165.5bn and USD 262bn, respectively.