On a calendar-adjusted basis, Turkey’s industrial production rose 2.6% y/y in December after rising 0.7% y/y in the previous month, the statistics office TUIK said on February 9. The market had expected a 2.53% y/y increase. According to TUIK, the calendar & seasonally adjusted industrial output that fell 0.1% m/m in November increased by 1.2% m/m in December.

On a calendar adjusted basis, intermediate goods output rose 2.3% y/y in December versus a 3% y/y contraction, durable goods increased 1.7% y/y after falling 0.6% y/y while capital goods output that dropped 0.4% y/y in November rose 7% y/y. Manufacturing production increased 2.8% y/y after contracting 0.2% y/y. Mining was up 7% y/y while utilities industry’s output fell 0.1% y/y.

Based on data provided by TUIK, we calculated that the unadjusted production index was up 4.6% y/y in December, in line with the market consensus of 4.3% y/y (revised Reuters poll of economists). On an unadjusted basis, manufacturing output rose 5.1% y/y in December after falling 2.5% y/y in November. In the whole of 2014, monthly average industrial production (unadjusted) rose 3.6% compared to 2013 when industrial output had risen 3% y/y.

Recall that the headline HSBC Turkey Manufacturing PMI fell for the second month running to 49.8 in January, from 51.4 in December, signalling a stagnation in manufacturing activity. Output, new orders, exports and purchases of inputs all declined in January, although employment continued to rise sharply, said Markit that compiles survey data.