Slovenia’s ruling Freedom Movement is projected to win the largest share of votes in the March 22 general election, but a sharply reduced margin over the opposition suggests complex coalition talks ahead, according to a parallel vote count.

The survey, conducted by Mediana for national broadcasters Pop TV and TV Slovenija, put Prime Minister Robert Golob’s party at 29.9% and the opposition Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), led by former premier Janez Janša, at 27.5%.

If confirmed, the result would give the Freedom Movement around 30 seats in the 90-member parliament, compared with roughly 27 for the SDS. That would be a substantial decline from the ruling party’s 41-seat victory in 2022, weakening its ability to govern alone.

Several smaller parties are projected to enter parliament, further fragmenting the political landscape. A centre-right grouping of New Slovenia (NSi), the Slovenian People's Party (SLS) and Fokus is seen taking 9.4%, while the Social Democrats (SD) are projected at 6.7%. A joint list of Levica and Vesna is expected to secure 6.3%.

Other parties hovering around or above the parliamentary threshold include Anže Logar’s Democrats (5.9%) and Resnica (5.2%).

The vote in the EU member state of 2.1mn people has been closely watched as a gauge of shifting political sentiment in Europe, where right-leaning and populist parties have gained ground since the 2024 European Parliament elections.

For much of the pre-election period, the SDS led opinion polls. In recent weeks, however, Golob’s government appeared to regain support following a series of economic measures, including bonus payments and pension increases.

The final stretch of the campaign was overshadowed by controversy involving secretly recorded videos linked to figures close to the government, as well as allegations of foreign interference.

A senior security official said authorities were investigating possible external involvement, citing intelligence findings that suggested activities by private firm Black Cube. The SDS has denied any connection and said it would pursue legal action.