Kazakhstan's manufacturing remained under pressure in May, PMI data shows
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Romania’s fob/cif trade gap widened by 54% y/y to €987mn in July after it nearly doubled in June, according to data released by the statistics office on September 11. The gap in the rolling 12 months ending July widened by 22% y/y to €11.7bn (6.5% of year’s projected GDP) — the highest since the 2008-2009 global recession.
The trade deficit is driven by the chemical industry, which accounts for over 60% of the trade gap, according to analysis of the January-July foreign trade data. The trade balance in the petroleum industry (fuel and lubricants) deteriorated abruptly by some 80% y/y and the gap accounted for 21% of the total. The sole sector where the country's trade balance posted surplus is the automobile industry.
Annual growth of imports has stabilised in double digits (14% y/y in July), driven by robust domestic demand particularly for consumption. Indeed this was the main cause of the large trade gap recently, but foreign trade activity has intensified in general: exports in the 12 months ending July advanced by 9.0% y/y (to €60.5bn), accelerating to the highest annual rate since August 2014.
The fob/fob trade gap estimated by bne IntelliNews widened by 26% y/y to €8.7bn (4.8% of GDP) in the rolling 12 months ending July. In July, the fob/fob trade gap was 76% wider y/y (€761mn).
| Foreign Trade ( €mn ) | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Q4 16 | Q1 17 | Q2 17 | Jul-17 |
| FOB Exports | 49,562 | 52,460 | 54,597 | 57,385 | 14,707 | 15,460 | 15,417 | 5,225 |
| 10.0% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | |
| CIF Imports | 55,269 | 58,508 | 62,961 | 67,342 | 17,734 | 17,774 | 18,940 | 6,211 |
| 1.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 14.0% | |
| FOB Imports* | 52,991 | 56,096 | 60,365 | 64,566 | 17,003 | 17,042 | 18,159 | 5,955 |
| FOB/CIF Balance | -5,707 | -6,049 | -8,364 | -9,957 | -3,027 | -2,314 | -3,523 | -987 |
| Balance y/y | -40.8% | 6.0% | 38.3% | 19.0% | 7.1% | 18.3% | 39.4% | 54.2% |
| FOB/FOB Balance* | -3,428 | -3,637 | -5,768 | -7,180 | -2,296 | -1,581 | -2,742 | -731 |
| Balance y/y | -53.5% | 6.1% | 58.6% | 24.5% | 7.0% | 21.3% | 49.6% | 76.0% |
| Source: INS, BNR, *estimates |
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