A prediction market on Polymarket shows traders assigning a 34% probability that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will no longer hold his position by June 30, 2026, with the likelihood rising 14 percentage points in recent weeks.

The market has attracted $1.47mn in trading volume as of January 6, reflecting heightened speculation about Iran's political future during nationwide protests that have killed at least 36 people over 10 days.

The probability climbed sharply in January after remaining below 25% through most of December following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Polymarket operates as a decentralised prediction platform where users can trade on the outcomes of future events, with prices reflecting the collective assessment of likelihood.

The platform gained prominence for accurately predicting election outcomes and geopolitical developments.

The surge in betting on Khamenei's potential departure comes as Iran faces its most significant domestic unrest in months, with protests spreading to 92 cities across 27 provinces.

Demonstrations began following the Iranian rial's collapse to record lows, with at least 2,076 people arrested and security forces raiding hospitals to detain injured protesters.

President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged on January 6 that "parliament and government together brought the country to this point", stating "we are all guilty" in an unusually critical assessment of leadership responsibility.

Former officials, including Mahmoud Vaezi, have called for dialogue with protesters and structural reforms rather than short-term measures.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed deep concern about developments, whilst US President Donald Trump warned Iran would be "hit very hard" if violence against protesters continues.

Senior Iranian officials have privately acknowledged the regime faces a survival crisis, according to The New York Times.

Khamenei, 85, has served as Supreme Leader since 1989 following Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's death. He holds final authority over all state matters in Iran's political system, including armed forces command, judicial appointments and foreign policy direction.