Poland’s inflation will likely remain at the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP’s) target through the end of 2028, according to the central bank’s latest projection, NBP governor Adam Glapiński said on March 5.

The new projection assumes that the annual inflation rate will fall to 1.6% and 2.9% in 2026, compared with a forecast range of 1.9% to 4% in the November 2025 projection. For 2027, inflation is expected to fall within a 1.1% to 3.7% range, again slightly narrower than the earlier 1.1% to 4.1% forecast, while the 2028 projection places inflation between 0.9% and 4.0%.

The central path for these estimates keeps inflation within the NBP’s 2.5% target, with a 1pp deviation either way.

“Of course, [the projection] does not include the consequences of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the attack on Iran, because today, apart from higher fuel prices, it is difficult to assess what those consequences will be,” Glapiński said.

Glapiński also said the outlook for core inflation, which policymakers closely monitor when assessing underlying price pressures, had also improved. 

“Over the entire forecast horizon, core inflation is expected to remain at the long-term average, that is around 2.5%,” Glapiński said.

The comments came after Poland’s Monetary Policy Council, the rate-setting body of the NBP, cut the central bank’s reference interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% at its March 4 meeting.

The decision ended a two-month pause in monetary easing following five consecutive 25-bp cuts between July and December.

Over 2025, the council reduced rates six times by a cumulative 175 basis points as inflation slowed toward the NBP’s target range.

Poland’s annual consumer price inflation stood at 2.2% in January, down 0.2 percentage points from December, according to the statistics office GUS.