Poland’s industrial output expanded 1.5% year on year (y/y) in constant prices in February, a changeover from a decline of 1.5% y/y the preceding month, unadjusted data from the statistics office GUS showed on March 19.

The reading arrived slightly better than the consensus line, which expected a 1.3% y/y gain in the second month. "In the coming months, we expect the moderately positive growth in industrial output to continue. Improved weather conditions in March are likely to support production results,” Santander Bank Polska said in a note. 

“The price shock in energy commodity markets [caused by war in Iran] will be reflected in domestic data with a lag, so the March reading is unlikely to be significantly affected for this reason,” it also said.

That puts a question mark over GDP growth expectations of around 3%-3.5% in 2026. Polish economy expanded 3.6% in 2025.

Seasonally adjusted, output rose 1.7% y/y in February after adding 0.4% y/y the preceding month, GUS data also showed. In unadjusted monthly terms, output increased 2.7% in February while also growing 0.6% m/m following adjustment.

In February, 17 of the 34 industrial divisions recorded annual output increases, compared to 21 in January, GUS data also showed.

Manufacturing output in February inched up 0.2% y/y, compared with a 3.2% y/y fall  in January. The mining and quarrying segment jumped 19.6% y/y, after growing a revised 5.4% y/y the preceding month.

Meanwhile, utility sector production increased 13.5% y/y in February, following a revised gain of 18.2% y/y in January. Water supply and waste management grew 2.8% y/y, compared with a 3.2% y/y growth the preceding month.

In the face of slightly weaker-than-expected data from the real economy in February, stabilisation in the domestic labour market and volatility in energy commodity markets, the NBP is will continue its “wait-and-see” approach, refraining from changes to interest rates, analysts say.

“We emphasise, however, the high degree of uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. Both the scale and duration of the conflict remain unknown, while tensions appear to be escalating, with infrastructure for the transport, production and processing of energy commodities coming under attack,” Bank Millennium said. 

“Under such conditions, a return by the MPC to an interest rate cutting cycle appears unlikely. In our view, rate increases would require a clear and sustained rise in inflation above the National Bank of Poland’s target, along with accelerating wage growth,” it also said.

The central bank last cut its reference rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% in March.