The nephew of Kazakhstan’s former president, Samat Abish, a former deputy head of the security services, has received an eight-year suspended sentence for his role in instigating bloody unrest in January 2022 that left hundreds dead, court officials said on March 20.

The lightness of the punishment is causing anger and bewilderment.

Little is known about how the trial was conducted, or even what specifically Abish was accused of doing, since it was held behind closed doors.

The Prosecutor General’s office revealed two months ago that it had completed its investigation into Abish, who was charged with abuse of office, and that the matter was being taken up by the courts. But it added that proceedings would be held behind closed doors as they would involve state secrets.

The lack of information divulged by investigators has only fuelled speculation. A widely circulated theory is that Abish was among a group of frustrated officials within the orbit of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev who had grown uncomfortable with the mounting influence of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

Nazarbayev stepped down in 2019 and handpicked Tokayev as his successor. While he and his family retained a powerful influence over the political and business scene after that, some observers believe Tokayev had increasingly been asserting himself.

The bloody turmoil that unfolded in January 2022 played out against that backdrop. Small protests in the west of the country over a spike in fuel price rises rapidly evolved into a broader expression of rage against the system. Events reached their culmination with violent clashes, mostly in Almaty, which ultimately left 238 people dead.

Once the dust had settled, a consensus emerged that what had started as organic demonstrations had been hijacked by nebulous forces intent on sowing instability for its own sake.

The authorities scrambled desperately to find somebody to blame.

Fingers were quickly turned toward the then-chief of the National Security Committee, or KNB, Karim Masimov, a long-time loyalist of Nazarbayev. He was fired and then soon after arrested. In April 2023, the Specialised Inter-district Criminal Court in Astana sentenced Masimov to 18 years in prison on charges of high treason over what his accusers say was his role in orchestrating the unrest.

Masimov’s former deputies in the KNB – Anvar Sadykulov, Daulet Yergozhin and Marat Osipov – were all likewise found guilty of various charges, ranging from treason to abuse of office, and sentenced to 16, 15 and three years in prison, respectively.

That trial too was held under a heavy cloak of secrecy.

But Abish, another one-time deputy head of the KNB, somehow evaded this robust treatment — a fact that has generally been attributed to his closeness to the former president. He was initially treated as a witness and was only charged in September.

Prosecutors had asked judges presiding over Abish’s trial in the Specialised Inter-district Criminal Court for eight years in prison. In the end, the court considered “mitigating circumstances” and Abish’s “full admission of guilt and sincere repentance” in opting for a suspended sentence.

It is unknown what exactly Abish admitted to, however, since his demonstration of repentance too has been kept secret. It is not even certain that Abish is even currently on Kazakh soil, since he has not been viewed physically by independent witnesses, although officials insist he has not been allowed to leave the country.

The fact of the sentence itself only initially came to light by means of a leak. Lawmaker Yermurat Bapi divulged the information to reporters while speaking to reporters on March 19 to express unhappiness over the fact that Abish had received a suspended sentence.

“If they have granted protection to such a person, the second-ranking figure in the National Security Committee, a person who dealt with all operational matters and who was linked to [the January unrest], then the influence of ‘Old Kazakhstan’ still exists in this country,” Bapi said.

The term Old Kazakhstan is commonly deployed as a sardonic reference to the Nazarbayev era, as contrasted with the New Kazakhstan agenda being promulgated by Tokayev.

Rumours about Abish’s role in the 2022 events were given some more substance in February, when an open letter published in Novaya Gazeta Europe authored by a former KNB official Ruslan Iskakov, who is also accused of abuse of power, directly fingered Abish. Iskakov claimed in the letter that Abish was being fully briefed while clashes were occurring and that he was coordinating events. In his own defence, Iskakov said he was only carrying out Abish’s orders.

Andrei Chebotarev, a political analyst, suggested on his Telegram channel that the lenient sentence reserved for Abish was the result of a compromise between the current leadership and the Nazarbayev camp.

The former ruling family may have made pledges to refrain from getting involved in the country’s political scene and transferred assets to the state in return for concessions, Chebotarev wrote.

Furthermore, Abish may have been induced to divulge compromising information regarding his relatives that the authorities could use against them in future if needed, Chebotarev said.

Almaz Kumenov is an Almaty-based journalist.

This article first appeared on Eurasianet here.