Nippon Steel (5401 / NPSCY) has unveiled a medium- to long-term strategy aimed at restoring its position as the world’s leading steelmaker, betting on overseas expansion, higher-value products and heavy investment to offset a tough global backdrop.

According to a company press release, the Japanese group said its 2030 plan assumes a more hostile business environment marked by geopolitical tensions, protectionism and persistent global steel oversupply. While demand is expected to grow in emerging markets such as India and in the US - where re-shoring is boosting appetite for high-grade steel - consumption in Japan is likely to continue shrinking because of demographic decline and the offshoring of manufacturing.

Against this backdrop, Nippon Steel is targeting underlying business profits of at least JPY1 trillion ($6.4bn) a year by fiscal 2030, up from its current run rate of about JPY600bn, and global crude steel capacity of more than 100mn tonnes. The group plans to invest about JPY6 trillion over the next five years, including roughly $11bn committed to its acquisition and upgrading of US Steel.

Domestically, the company plans to focus on profitability rather than volume. Measures include further cost reductions, more concentrated production and the suspension of some underused facilities, alongside a push into higher-value solutions for sectors such as automotive, infrastructure, energy and shipbuilding. According to the press release, management said it would leverage group-wide capabilities to defend market share in Japan despite structurally declining demand.

The more ambitious growth targets lie overseas. In the US, Nippon Steel plans to spend heavily to modernise US Steel’s operations and transfer its own technologies, aiming to strengthen competitiveness in what it describes as the world’s largest market for premium steel. In India, where steel demand is expected to rise sharply with economic and population growth, the group will expand capacity at its Hazira plant and begin building a new integrated steelworks in Andhra Pradesh. Thailand, where Nippon Steel already holds about a 30% share of the steel sheet market, is another priority.

Decarbonisation also features prominently. Nippon Steel plans to introduce large-scale electric arc furnaces in Japan by 2030 and continues to target carbon neutrality by 2050, though it has stressed the need for government support and industry collaboration to develop breakthrough technologies.

The company said it would maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 30% and introduce a minimum annual dividend of JPY24 per share through to 2030, signalling confidence in the stability of its earnings as it pursues global growth.