Growth in Estonian retail sales slowed down to just 1% y/y in July, according to data released by Statistics Estonia on August 31.
The reading shows the sector failing to improve or even match the 5% annual growth seen the previous month, returning to the slow expansion that occurred in February, April, and May this year. Still, the July gain keeps retail sales on an expansion track that has run since mid-2013. In monthly terms, retail sales growth came in flat.
However feeble, retail sales growth in Estonia is fuelled by the tight labour market, as wages grew 6.8% y/y in the second quarter. With industrial output also putting in a strong expansion –growing 14.5% y/y in June – the momentum appears to be there for accelerated GDP growth in the coming quarters.
In fact, the Estonian economy expanded 5.7% y/y in the first quarter, prompting Swedbank analysts to mull revising GDP projections for 2017 from the currently expected 3.5%. The outlook from the European Commission remains conservative at 2.3%.
The annual growth in retail sales came on the back of an 11% expansion in sales of manufactured goods, which came in at the same rate as in June. Food sales fell 3% y/y in July, while sales of automotive fuel declined 9% y/y.