Gold climbed to a fresh all-time high, crossing $5,100 per ounce on January 26, extending its record-breaking run as investors seek safety amid rising geopolitical tensions and global fiscal risks.

Spot gold prices gained 2.4%, trading at $5,102 per ounce, before paring gains to last trade at $5,086. US gold futures for February rose 2.1%, reaching $5,087 per ounce.

The precious metal's surge follows one year since Donald Trump returned to the White House, with gold rising more than 75% over that period, the sharpest 12-month move under any US president other than Richard Nixon's second term in 1973.

"The recent further leg up in gold and silver prices has arrived on the back of geoeconomics issues related to Greenland," HSBC wrote in a note last week.

Silver rallied on January 26, with spot prices jumping 4.9% to $107.90 per ounce, also benefiting from industrial demand.

The metal surged more than 200% in the past year, driven by ongoing challenges in scaling up refining and a persistent supply shortage.

Goldman Sachs lifted its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce, up from $4,900 previously, arguing that hedges against global macro and policy risks have become "sticky," effectively lifting the starting point for prices this year.

"We anticipate that gold should enjoy another strong year, reflecting ongoing central bank and retail investment demand, with a year-end target price of $5,200 per ounce," Union Bancaire Privée stated.

Goldman Sachs sees gold's demand base broadened beyond traditional channels.

Western exchange-traded fund holdings climbed by around 500 tonnes since the start of 2025, whilst newer instruments used to hedge macro-policy risks, including physical purchases by high-net-worth families, have become increasingly important demand sources.

Central bank purchases remain robust, with Goldman Sachs estimating purchases now average around 60 tonnes monthly, far above the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes. Emerging-market central banks continue driving purchases.

Gold rose around 65% in 2025, its best percentage gain since 1979, surpassing $4,000 per ounce for the first time in October. Trade concerns, reduced demand for the US dollar and increased central bank buying created ideal conditions for the historic upswing.