Net profit of Russian energy giant Gazprom under IFRS grew almost five times to RUB787.1bn ($12bn) in 2015, the company reported on April 28.
"Net income visibly exceeded both our and the consensus forecast due to a lower than expected FX loss, which the company reported at $0.6bn vs. our forecast of $1.9bn," VTB Capital analysts said in a note. The results suggest dividend yield of 10.3% if Gazprom pays out 50% of its IFRS earnings in the form of dividends for last year, the analysts said.
Revenue from sales in 2015 amounted to RUB6.073 trillion, which is by 8.66% more y/y. The company's net debt increased by 26.2% to RUB2.083 trillion.
In April, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree obliging Gazprom, Alrosa, Bashneft, Zarubezhneft, RusHydro, Sovcomflot, Transneft and Rosneftegas to pay out at least 50% of net profit in dividends. Gazprom, however, may try to lower the required level of dividend payout citing its large investment programme, additional taxes and the weak European gas market.
Gazprom was among the leaders of growth on the Moscow stock exchange during the trading session on April 28. Its stock rose by 2.34% to RUB3.9 trillion, while the Micex index increased by 1.88%.
| Gazprom - KEY METRICS | ||||
| 2014 | 2015E | 2016E | 2017E | |
| Financials, $ mln | ||||
| Revenues | 145,880 | 93,377 | 61,250 | 69,051 |
| EBITDA | 47,033 | 30,444 | 14,278 | 14,688 |
| EBITDA margin | 32% | 33% | 23% | 21% |
| Net income | 7,518 | 12,256 | 2,178 | 3,178 |
| EPS (adj), $ | 0.32 | 0.52 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Div/share, $ | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Valuation, Gearing and Yield | ||||
| EV/EBITDA | 1.7 | 2.8 | 6.8 | 7.4 |
| P/E | 6.2 | 3.3 | 18.8 | 12.9 |
| P/CF | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| Net debt/EBITDA | 0.6 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| Dividend yield | 5.90% | 5.20% | 1.30% | 1.90% |
| Growth | ||||
| Revenues | -12% | -36% | -34% | 13% |
| EBITDA | -26% | -35% | -53% | 3% |
| EPS (adj) | -79% | 63% | -82% | 46% |
| Sector Valuation | ||||
| EV/EBITDA | 2.2 | 3 | 5 | 4.3 |
| P/E | 3.7 | 4.4 | 9.6 | 7.3 |
| P/CF | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| Sector Growth | ||||
| Revenues | -6% | -35% | -42% | 24% |
| EBITDA | -16% | -29% | -40% | 20% |
| EPS | -27% | -27% | -57% | |
| Main Shareholders | ||||
| Government | 50.00% | |||
| Gazprom and affiliates | 7.30% | |||
| VEB | 2.70% | |||
| Other | 40.00% | |||
| Website | http://www.gazprom.ru | |||
| Gazprom 3Q15 IFRS results, $ mln | |||||||||
| 3Q14 | 3Q15A | y-o-y | 3Q15E | A/E | 3Q15C | A/C | 9m14 | 9m15 | |
| Net revenues | 31,114 | 20,712 | -33% | 20,733 | 0% | 20,355 | 2% | 113,627 | 70,849 |
| EBITDA | 13,096 | 7,767 | -41% | 7,537 | 3% | 7,083 | 10% | 37,899 | 23,665 |
| Net income | 2,912 | -32 | -101% | -630 | n/a | -277 | n/a | 15,785 | 11,623 |
| C - Interfax consensus poll of 14 sell-side analysts. | |||||||||
| Source: Company, Interfax, Sberbank CIB Investment Research | |||||||||
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