Calm is prevailing in Kyrgyzstan following President Sadyr Japarov’s power play earlier in February, when he purged his erstwhile right-hand man and his allies. But in a state with a long history of political volatility, observers in Bishkek believe there is still a chance of blowback to what has amounted to a palace coup.

Japarov moved February 10 to sideline his longtime political sidekick, Kamchybek Tashiyev, who headed the powerful state security service. He then proceeded to purge officials associated with Tashiyev from key posts, including the ministers of health, natural resources, water and agriculture, transport and emergency situations. In addition, the mayors of the southern cities of Osh and Manas (formerly Jalal-Abad), as well as several parliamentary deputies, including the former speaker, resigned their posts under pressure.

Japarov also moved quickly to curtail the influence of the security service, or GKNB. The president authorised the arrest of the head of GKNB’s Bishkek office, as well as several of its agents. He then went on to state that moving forward, the GKNB would go back to its “core missions” of intelligence gathering and counterintelligence. At the same time, he announced the creation of a Russian-style Investigative Committee to handle domestic security. The new agency will report directly to the president.

In carrying out the purge, Japarov took care not to accuse Tashiyev of any wrongdoing, providing him with an off-ramp to a quiet retirement, effectively allowing him to retain whatever assets he and his family have accumulated. 

For now, Tashiyev has acquiesced to his sidelining without complaint. When Japarov moved to oust him February 10, Tashiyev had been receiving medical treatment in Germany. The ousted GKNB chief, who has a reputation as a hard-nosed politician, soon flew back to Bishkek, leaving the country wondering what his next move would be. 

But the pair met on the evening of February 15, and Japarov told Tashiyev to “relax, my friend, and take care of your health,” according to a report published by the state news agency Kabar.

Tashiyev proceeded to leave the country on February 17. His destination has not been publicly disclosed, but associates have stated his stay outside of Kyrgyzstan is envisioned as “temporary.”

Since Tashiyev’s exit, Kyrgyzstan has been relatively quiet. 

Tashiyev’s departure has prompted his many critics to come out of the woodwork. During his tenure as the head of the GKNB, he presided over a smothering crackdown on civil liberties, as well as the corralling of independent media and the country’s non-governmental sector. The GKNB’s no-holds-barred approach to quashing domestic dissent greatly assisted Japarov’s early efforts to consolidate his authority.

During a parliamentary hearing February 26, MP Elvira Surabaldieva, one of a handful of critical voices in the pliant parliament, gave voice to a question that has been quietly circulating in Kyrgyz society since Tashiyev’s exit.

“So, considering everything that’s going on, will there any sort of political thaw?” she asked a deputy prosecutor general. “Will certain decisions be reevaluated?”

Also on February 26, Kyrgyz journalists petitioned Japarov, seeking a review of cases of journalists and activists convicted on charges of “calls for mass disorder,” the GKNB’s favoured tool of repression, according to Tandyr Media, a Kyrgyz outlet.

Since the shake-up began, roughly 500 complaints from officials and businesspeople against GKNB agents for abuse of power have been filed, Kaktus reported.

So far, the Japarov administration has given no indication that it is considering rolling back any of the repressive measures favoured by the Tashiyev-led GKNB.

Some observers believe that the present sense of stability may be fleeting.

“It’s unclear whether Japarov will ultimately be successful. Tashiev might accept his lot for the moment, but that doesn’t mean his supporters and other members of the Kyrgyz elite will simply forget,” Temur Umarov, a Central Asian regional political expert, wrote in an analysis published by the Carnegie Russia EurasiaCenter.

“The moment they [Japarov opponents] decide there is an opportunity to renegotiate the status quo, or when Japarov shows weakness, these old grudges will resurface—and life will return to Kyrgyz politics,” Umarov added.