The fate of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains unknown on February 28 following Israeli strikes destroyed his Tehran compound,

Israeli television reported growing indications he had been killed, while Iran's Foreign Minister said he was alive "as far as I know."

Iran said the leader would be releasing a video following the attack by Israel, but it has not yet been uploaded online as the country remains offline.  

Israeli Channel 12, citing unnamed Israeli sources, said there were "growing indications" that Khamenei had been killed in the strikes, having earlier assessed he was "hurt at the very least."

The channel noted the assessment was not based on satellite imagery of his destroyed compound but on information from anonymous sources, and said a statement expected from Khamenei could have been pre-recorded, The Times of Israel cited the television station with close links to intelligence.

However, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC News on February 28 that Khamenei was still alive "as far as I know," adding that Iran "may have lost several commanders" in the strikes but declined to say the Supreme Leader was dead following the historic strike on his Pasteur Street residence for more than three decades.

An Iranian official told Reuters earlier that Khamenei was not in Tehran at the time of the attack and had been transferred to a secure location. Satellite imagery showed his compound reduced to rubble, by mid-afternoon of February 28.

According to Axios, citing Israeli and US officials, the Israeli Air Force conducted strikes simultaneously on three sites where gatherings of the Iranian regime were taking place, eliminating "several senior figures essential to the management of the campaign and the regime's governance."

Who is alive? 

Among those targeted were President Masoud Pezeshkian, IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour, Defence Minister Amir Nasirzadeh, Khamenei's top security adviser Ali Shamkhani and former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, all of whom have also not been seen in recent hours with unconfirmed reports that they were also potentially killed in a meeting with the Supreme Leader. 

An unnamed commander said General Mohammad Pakpour and Defence Minister Amir Nasirzadeh were killed in Israeli strikes. Israeli officials said they had also targeted Khamenei's sons, but intelligence assessments suggested they survived, however, the home of former President Mahmoud Ahmadenijad in the Narmak area of the city was targeted with at least three people killed in that strike.  

An Israeli official told Axios that "the goal is to create all the conditions for the downfall of the Iranian regime, and with the targeting of opposition figures including the sidelined former president appears to show an attempt to sweep away of all factions of the current system.  

The decapitation of Iran's military and political leadership, if confirmed, would represent an unprecedented rupture in the Islamic Republic's 47-year power structure, in no time since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s has the country faced such a critical situation the power structures created since the fall of Shah Reza Pahlavi in 1979 who fled to Mexico.

The position of Supreme Leader, which sits above the presidency and controls the armed forces, the judiciary and state media, has been held by only two figures since the 1979 revolution: Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who died in 1989, and Khamenei, now 85, who said he “did not fear death.”

Under Iran's constitution, the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical body, is responsible for selecting a new Supreme Leader. Khamenei's son Mojtaba had for years been discussed as a possible successor, though his appointment would represent a dynastic transfer of power at odds with revolutionary ideology.

Other candidates previously mentioned by analysts include the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Hassan Khomeini, who was seen in recent events with the current leader.

Under Iran's constitution, if the Supreme Leader dies or is incapacitated, a temporary leadership council composed of the President, the head of the judiciary and a member of the Guardian Council takes over until the Assembly of Experts convenes to select a permanent successor.

If Khamenei is dead

The Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of senior clerics elected by the public, holds sole constitutional authority to appoint and, if necessary, dismiss the Supreme Leader.

With President Pezeshkian also reported as a target of the strikes, and his fate unconfirmed, the constitutional succession mechanism itself faces an immediate crisis.

The head of the judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, would in theory form part of the interim council, but reports by Israeli backed social media accounts claimed he was also killed in early morning strikes across Tehran.  If all members of the presidential council were killed effective control of the state means military commanders would likely hold the real levers of power in any transitional period.

Khamenei's son Mojtaba had for years been discussed within regime circles as a possible successor, though his appointment would represent a dynastic transfer of power deeply at odds with the revolutionary ideology of the Islamic Republic and would likely face resistance within the clerical establishment.

The broader question, with the IRGC's top two commanders now dead and US and Israeli strikes ongoing, is whether any successor would inherit enough institutional authority to hold the state together, or whether the strikes have effectively broken the command structure that has sustained the Islamic Republic since 1979.