Bulgaria’s former president Rumen Radev and his newly formed coalition are leading opinion polls ahead of the country’s April 19 snap parliamentary election, according to a survey published on March 16.

The poll by Sova Harris, commissioned by Bulgarian daily Trud and conducted between March 7 and 12 among 1,000 adults, showed Radev’s coalition Progressive Bulgaria winning 30.9% of support if elections were held now.

It was followed by the centre-right GERB–UDF on 19.03% and the reformist alliance Change Continues – Democratic Bulgaria on 12.2%. Other parties projected to enter parliament include Movement for Rights and Freedoms – New Beginning with 7.1%, nationalist party Vazrazhdane with 6.7% and BSP – United Left with 4.4%, just above the electoral threshold.

Several smaller groups would fail to enter parliament, including Morality, Unity, Honor with 3.8%, the Siyanie Coalition with 2.9%, Velichie with 2.5%, and There Is Such a People with 2.2%. The Alliance for Rights and Freedoms polled below 2%.

Radev, who served as Bulgaria’s president from 2017 until stepping down in January, announced on March 2 that he would lead Progressive Bulgaria, moving directly into party politics after months of speculation about his future role. The coalition said on March 16 he would head its candidate lists in the Black Sea city of Burgas and in Sofia’s 25th multi-member district, a high-profile constituency where leading politicians traditionally compete.

Other recent polls have also placed Radev’s new political project ahead. A survey by Alpha Research earlier this month showed Progressive Bulgaria with 32.6% support, while a February poll by Trend published by newspaper 24 Chasa put a Radev-aligned formation at 32.7%.

The Sova Harris survey suggests turnout could reach around 55% of eligible voters, or nearly three million adults, potentially reversing a downward trend in participation seen in recent elections. About 2.5mn voters say they have already decided whom to support, while roughly one million remain undecided.

The poll also showed Radev with the highest trust rating among politicians at 48.8%, followed by President Iliana Iotova at 42.9%. Caretaker Prime Minister Andrey Gurov received a 25.5% trust rating.

Public trust in state institutions remained low, the survey showed. Only 18.8% of respondents said they trusted the government, 12.3% the prosecution service and 10.8% the courts, while confidence in the National Assembly of Bulgaria stood at just 5.2%.

Opinion was divided on whether the caretaker administration could guarantee a fair vote, with 34.7% expressing confidence and 30.7% saying the opposite. Around a third remained undecided.

The Central Election Commission has said 24 political entities will participate in the April 19 ballot. Just 24.6% of respondents believe the vote will produce a stable government, while 42.1% expect continued instability.

Radev told supporters during Bulgaria’s national day celebrations on March 3 in Stara Zagora that he expected victory and vowed to dismantle what he described as an “oligarchic corruption model” in Bulgarian politics.

Bulgaria, an EU member state of about 6.5mn people, is heading toward its eighth parliamentary election in five years after a series of fragile coalitions collapsed. The latest political crisis followed the resignation of Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov in December amid protests over corruption.