Brussels is set to hold a decisive vote on its trade agreement with Mercosur this week, as France lobbies for a postponement and the outcome hangs in the balance, according to Denmark, which holds the EU's rotating presidency.

The ballot is timed to enable European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen to fly to Brazil on December 20 to sign the pact, Danish officials confirmed on December 12, as reported by Reuters. Paris, however, has urged Brussels to defer the decision until January, warning that conditions for approval are not yet satisfied.

At stake is an accord that would link the EU with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay in what would become the bloc's largest trade deal measured by tariff cuts. Reached last December after 25 years of stop-start talks, the agreement would create a free-trade area encompassing roughly 800mn people.

But passage is far from assured. Under EU rules, the deal needs support from at least 15 member states accounting for 65% of the bloc's population. Germany, Spain and the Nordic countries back the agreement strongly. Poland has declared its opposition. France and Italy have yet to show their hand, with Rome's position likely to prove decisive given Belgium's expected abstention.

The stakes could not be higher, according to one EU diplomat. "If we don't sign Mercosur in the next days it will be dead," the official said, as quoted by Reuters. "If we can't agree on Mercosur, we don't need to talk about European sovereignty anymore."

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu called on December 14 for a delay following outbreaks of lumpy skin disease that have triggered livestock culls and farmer protests. France, the EU's biggest agricultural producer, argues that safeguards proposed by the Commission in October remain inadequate.

Paris wants three guarantees: trigger mechanisms to halt imports in cases of dumping, requirements forcing Mercosur products to match EU standards on pesticides and animal feed, and tougher food safety inspections.

Geraldo Alckmin, Brazil's vice-president, said that Brasília still expects to finalise the agreement on December 20 in Foz do Iguaçu, despite French manoeuvring. "If there are no changes, it will be signed on December 20, after 25 years of work," he told an international seminar in São Paulo last week, though he added that "France's move is to try to push it to January."

Alckmin acknowledged European unease over Brazilian agricultural competitiveness, saying France remains cautious because of the subsidies it grants to rural producers. "Proximity is important for more sustainable development," he added.

The Commission insists that completion of the deal is paramount. A spokesperson said signing now was "a matter of crucial importance — economically, diplomatically and geopolitically". Proponents argue the pact is essential for diversifying trade ties as the bloc contends with US tariffs and Chinese curbs on semiconductor and rare earth exports.

Crucially, the deal offers access to lithium and other critical minerals vital for Europe's green transition, currently dominated by Chinese suppliers. "Mercosur countries are among the largest global producers of lithium, iron ore, nickel and more," Von der Leyen wrote in an op-ed last year, adding that the partnership would "lower or remove export taxes" and "eliminate export restrictions and monopolies."

Blocking the deal would require four member states representing at least 35% of the EU's population. Italy's position will probably determine whether opponents can reach that threshold.

The European Parliament adds another layer of uncertainty. Lawmakers vote on December 16 on a bilateral safeguard clause for farm products, including a controversial reciprocity provision that would oblige South American exporters to meet EU production standards. The measure cleared the parliament's trade committee by just one vote.

But parliamentary officials question whether the reciprocity requirements comply with World Trade Organisation rules. One official cited by Euronews described it as "technically unworkable". Some legislators may vote for the clause while expecting member states to reject it later, sources said, allowing them to avoid backlash in rural constituencies.

Francesco Lollobrigida, Italy's Agriculture Minister, said in Brussels on December 12: "If rules on the use of crop protection products and antibiotics are imposed on our producers, in order to protect the environment and labour rights, we cannot allow products that are completely at odds with these standards enter the market."

Even if member states approve the deal for Von der Leyen's Brazil trip, final parliamentary ratification — scheduled for early 2026 — faces further obstacles. According to Euronews, some 145 lawmakers have asked the EU Court of Justice to review whether the Commission breached procedures by splitting the agreement into separate parts, a tactic widely seen as designed to sidestep national parliaments.

In France, opposition runs particularly deep. Some 103 MPs signed a resolution calling on the government to challenge the deal's legality, arguing the Commission's decision violates EU treaties. The controversy comes as Lecornu's minority government struggles to pass a budget before year-end.

Pedro Miguel da Costa e Silva, Brazil's ambassador to the EU, has dismissed concerns over food quality as misinformation. "I think there is a lot of misperception, a lot of disinformation, a lot of fake news, about the quality [of food], like we're going to poison the citizens of the EU. Which, of course, makes no sense," he said last month.

He argued Mercosur farmers face the real competitive disadvantage. "There is an issue of level playing field here, but it's against us, not in our favour," da Costa e Silva said, pointing out that South American producers receive far fewer subsidies than European counterparts.

Meanwhile, tensions within Mercosur itself have further complicated matters. Brazil has proposed slashing annual contributions to Focem, the bloc's development fund, from $100mn to roughly $30mn, prompting protests from Uruguay and Paraguay, the main beneficiaries. The two countries said the proposal "sends a negative signal for regional integration" and "weakens both politically and economically Mercosur's main cohesion mechanism". Another stumbling block could emerge from Argentina, as President Javier Milei favours closer ties with the US under the Trump administration and has, at times, floated the possibility of leaving the regional trading bloc should Washington request it.

The Mercosur summit is scheduled for December 20, when Brazil will hand the bloc's rotating presidency to Paraguay.