Estonia’s working-day adjusted industrial output declined by 0.7% y/y in September 2013, with manufacturing output shrinking by 2.3% y/y, energy production gaining 11% y/y, and mining going up by 5.6% y/y, according to the report by Statistics Estonia. In August, the growth rate of the industrial output weakened to 1% y/y as compared to 2%-6% growth range seen in Jan-July 2013.

Lower y/y output was seen in only a third of the branches of manufacturing. At the same time, output of electronic products as usual contributed the most to the overall dynamics, diving by 16.3% y/y in September. Also chemicals and products thereof declined by 6.9% y/y, while food products increased by 6.9% y/y.

In September, 70% of the whole manufacturing production accounted for exports. Unadjusted data shows that manufacturing exports sales were down by 3% y/y. At the same time domestic sales went up by 3% y/y.

Since May faster growth of industrial output and manufacturing sales was a positive signal of external demand that could be improving after deteriorating since the end of 2012. However, in August and September’s the trend seems to have changed.

Although absorbed partly by domestic demand, weak external demand already resulted in weaker CB’s projections of fixed capital investment. It is expected at 2% in 2013, while GDP growth forecast for 2013 was cut from previous 3% to 2%.

In 2012 overall, industrial output remained flat y/y vs. 18% y/y growth seen in 2011.