The Czech economy should recover in 2014 posting a growth of 2.2%, consultancy Ernst & Young said in a new forecast improving its previous estimate of 1.9% mainly due to the central bank’s foreign exchange interventions aimed at keeping the koruna weak.
E&Y believes that rising exports will also stimulate domestic demand as firms expand capacity and increase their demand for labor. This will help the economy to expand by around 3% from 2015 to 2017, according to E&Y’s latest Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast published in February.
The weaker Czech currency will also prevent inflation from falling too far. The average inflation is projected at 1.7% in 2014 and at 1.9% in the next three years. This will lower real interest rates, encouraging companies and households to boost their investment and spending. According to E&Y, the Czech central bank will keep the koruna weak at least until early 2015.
The recovery in the euro zone, which buys some 63% of Czech exports, will support growth in the Czech Republic. According to an analysis of E&Y the country will benefit the most in CEE from the euro zone recovery thanks to its strong banking sector with the share of non-performing loans the lowest, along with Poland, and the loan-to-deposit ratio below 100% suggesting that the Czech Republic has a significant potential for expanding credit without requiring support from parent banks. Yet, E&Y cautioned that growth might be held back by possible tensions within the newly formed governing coalition.
| E&Y estimates for the Czech Republic | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
| Real GDP growth (%) | -1,4 | 2,2 | 2,9 | 3 | 2,9 |
| CPI inflation (%) | 1,4 | 1,7 | 1,9 | 1,9 | 1,9 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -1,8 | -1,8 | -1,9 | -2 | -1,8 |
| External debt (% of GDP) | 51,/ | 53,6 | 52,2 | 51,7 | 50,9 |
| Govt balance (% of GDP) | -2,9 | 2,9 | -2,8 | -2,6 | -2,3 |
| Source: E&Y |
Eurozone manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in nearly four years in April as factories rushed to build safety stocks ahead of expected price rises and supply shortages linked to the ... more
Two thirds of Central Europeans are concerned about Russian interference in their country’s media or public opinion, according to a new poll conducted by MEDIAN on behalf of the ... more
Four Czech citizens on a skiing holiday were killed in avalanches that occurred in Kyrgyzstan's northern district of Ak-Suu over the weekend, according to the Issyk-Kul regional police department. ... more