Bulgaria’s former president Rumen Radev is on course to win a snap parliamentary election on April 19, according to a new opinion poll, in what could mark a political breakthrough after years of instability.

A survey by Market Links published on April 16 showed Radev’s newly formed Progressive Bulgaria coalition leading with 30.8% support among decided voters, well ahead of former prime minister Boyko Borissov’s GERB-UDF bloc on 18%.

The poll suggests a fragmented parliament, with at least five parties expected to cross the 4% threshold, including the pro-European Change Continues–Democratic Bulgaria coalition, the DPS-New Beginning faction and nationalist party Vazrazhdane.

Despite the strong lead, Radev is unlikely to secure an outright majority and will need coalition partners to form a stable government.

“We expect significantly higher voter turnout. Progressive Bulgaria draws on these new voters,” Market Links analyst Dobromir Zhivkov told broadcaster bTV, noting that around 15% of voters remain undecided, most of whom are leaning towards Radev’s party.

Radev, who stepped down as president in January to launch his own political project, has campaigned on an anti-corruption platform, vowing to dismantle entrenched political and business networks in the EU’s poorest member state.

The election is the latest in a series of votes that underline Bulgaria’s prolonged political crisis. The country has held multiple elections since 2021, with successive governments collapsing amid infighting and public protests over corruption.

GERB’s decade-long dominance ended in 2021, ushering in a cycle of fragile coalitions and caretaker administrations. Its most recent government fell after protests late last year, triggering the current early election.

Radev’s rise reflects growing public frustration with the political establishment, but it remains unclear whether he can break the deadlock that has plagued Sofia’s governance.

His positions on foreign policy have raised concern among some pro-EU pundits. Radev has criticised Western military support for Ukraine and questioned the benefits of Bulgaria joining the euro zone earlier this year, views that could complicate relations with Brussels if he comes to power.

At the same time, Bulgaria remains heavily reliant on EU funding, limiting the scope for troublemaking within the bloc.

Radev has warned that his party’s expected electoral success could be challenged, accusing rivals of attempting to discredit the vote by raising concerns over foreign interference.