Annual inflation Uzbekistan edges up to 8.1% in April from 8.0% in March

By bne IntelliNews May 4, 2024

Inflation in Uzbekistan was in April recorded at  0.93% m/m and 8.08% y/y, according to the national statistics agency.

The figures compared to 0.82% m/m and 11% y/y in April 2023. Annual inflation in March this year was 7.98% y/y.

Food prices in April saw a modest increase of 0.4% m/m, marking the lowest monthly gain registered in the past five years. Non-food prices rose by 1% m/m, while the cost of paid services moved up by 1.8% m/m, a record high for April in terms of the the past five years.

April gasoline prices dropped by 1.8% m/m, but jumped 27.6% y/y.

Uzbekistan's central bank on April 25 kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 14% for the ninth time running, pointing to risks that inflation could once more accelerate.

Planned hikes of state-regulated prices for certain goods and services, together with the introduction of value-added tax on some goods, could add to price growth, it said.

Monetary conditions were forming in a relatively tight phase in comparison to the upper boundary of the updated forecast on the inflation corridor, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) added.

The CBU, which targets inflation of 5%, has revised its 2024 annual inflation expectation to between 9% and 11% from 8% to 9%.

The inflation expectations of the population and entrepreneurs remained above the CBU’s current and projected inflation rates, the regulator noted.

Also last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that following inflation in Uzbekistan of 10% last year, it was expecting 11.6% this year and 9.7% in 2025.

The CBU’s next rate-setting meeting is scheduled for June 13.

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