European credit insurance group Credendo has released a statement highlighting increasing unrest in Angola after the government moved to reform its fuel subsidy policy on July 4.

Immediately after the decision to suspend subsidies that month, diesel prices increased by 33%, according to Credendo, which led to large-scale violent demonstrations and a taxi drivers’ strike that shut down public transportation systems and all commercial activities in the country’s capital, Luanda.

These demonstrations saw 22 people killed and hundreds of arrests take place. Credendo notes that economic strife since the protests has increased risk of further civil unrest.

Indeed, statistics provided by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Statista show that issues with the Angolan fuel sector are likely to get worse as oil prices fluctuate, with both organisations anticipating international oil price projections to drop to around $60-$65 per barrel.

JP Morgan has predicted a price of $58 per barrel in 2026, in part due to increasing global oil supply. Notably, OPEC+ has played a significant role in this, with the cartel planning to ease cuts which will surpass demand and build inventories.

Impacts to Angola are expected to be noticeable due to the country’s over-dependence on oil, with the commodity’s revenue representing around 95% of its export income and 60% of government revenues, according to Credendo.

These budgetary accounts are based mostly on an assumption that the price per barrel of oil will remain at $70. Any drops in this price will noticeably affect Angola’s fiscal position, and this alongside subsidy removal – which has raised prices in almost every sector – will continue to fuel public anger.

Furthermore, increasing social unrest in the country has coincided with looming debt repayment deadlines in 2025 and 2026, which has again put pressure on the government.

According to Credendo, Angola remains classified in the second highest long-term political risk category, due to its socio-economic and financial vulnerability, thanks to over-reliance on oil sector income.