The United States’ decision to designate Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) for alleged persecution of Christians is likely to strain diplomatic engagement but is not expected to break bilateral ties, according to an assessment by Fitch Solutions’ political-risk, macroeconomic and industry-analysis unit Business Monitor International (BMI).

US President Donald Trump announced the decision on October 31, adding Nigeria to the State Department’s CPC list alongside Mainland China, Myanmar, North Korea, Pakistan and Russia. Nigeria was previously placed on the CPC list in 2020, before being removed in 2021, making this a renewed designation.

BMI noted that Trump’s accompanying remarks — including the possibility of airstrikes or troop deployments to protect Christians — unsettled policymakers and investors. These statements have not been codified into US Government policy. Abuja has indicated that it would accept US support against Islamist insurgents provided that Nigerian sovereignty is respected.

Nigeria’s government has rejected Trump’s allegations of state-backed religious persecution, arguing that insecurity stems from criminal groups, banditry and jihadist organisations rather than government-directed targeting of Christians.

Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) show that nearly 2,000 attacks on civilians have occurred this year, with only a small minority coded as explicitly motivated by hostility toward Christians. BMI noted that this data complicates narratives circulating in segments of the US political sphere.

Policy consequences remain uncertain but could be significant. A near-term risk is that the US Congress may block a proposed $346mn arms sale to Nigeria approved by the State Department in August. BMI added that previous periods of tension between Abuja and Washington — including earlier disputes over human-rights reporting and military-assistance conditions — have occasionally delayed defence cooperation.

The firm also emphasised that longer-term threats of sanctions or any unilateral US military action without Nigerian consent are analytical scenarios, not forecasts. Such developments, BMI said, could prompt Nigeria to deepen defence and economic cooperation with Mainland China. The firm assessed that unilateral US intervention would deteriorate Nigeria’s political-risk environment and weaken investor sentiment.