A late poll, combining exit poll data with some official results, put Karol Nawrocki ahead with 50.7%, while Rafal Trzaskowski trailed at 49.3%, a 1.4 percentage point gap, shortly before midnight Poland time on June 1. 

This margin is slightly wider than the exit poll – in which Trzaskowski was the leader – and has a margin of error of just 1pp, contrary to the exit poll's 2pp, now hinting at Nawrocki as the favourite to win.

If Nawrocki wins, it would be a major setback for Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government, which would face a hostile president likely to veto key reforms. 

Tusk’s agenda has already been blocked by the outgoing PiS-aligned President Andrzej Duda, and this is expected to continue if Nawrocki takes office in August. The Tusk-led coalition is well short of a majority to override presidential vetoes.

That might contribute further to the Tusk government’s losing popular support. Working against Duda, the government has seen its support figures slide to just 32% in a cyclical survey by CBOS,  a state polling institution. 

Nawrocki campaigned on a platform of making Poland “normal,” vowing to push back against closer ties with the EU, halt progress on LGBTQ+ rights and resist moves to liberalise abortion laws.

Nawrocki has also said he would curb the rights of Ukrainians in Poland and claimed Ukraine was taking advantage of Poland economically, using war as leverage.