The Trump administration has balked at backing Nobel Peace Prize winner and opposition leader María Corina Machado following Operation Maduro for fear of being forced to scale up its military intervention in Venezuela, The New York Times reported on January 5.

The overtly pro-US Machado is an obvious candidate to take over after US military forces carried a dramatic raid on Caracas, snatching the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who is now awaiting trial on narco-terrorism charges in a New York jail.

In an interview with Fox News at the end of last year, Machado said that she would thrown Venezuela’s oil sector open to US companies which would “make a lot of money.”

However, US President Donald Trump was ultimately dissuaded from backing her to become the new presidential candidate after Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued that she risked destabilising Venezuela further, forcing the US to scale up its intervention in the country. A classified CIA assessment echoed this view, suggesting US intervention could necessitate a larger military footprint in the region, the report said.

Machado, a long-standing critic of Maduro and a key figure in Venezuela’s opposition, had been disqualified from running in the 2024 presidential election by the Maduro-controlled Supreme Court. She endorsed Edmundo González, a unity candidate selected by the opposition coalition. But according to NYT, US officials were sceptical of her capacity to translate political popularity into an effective strategy for transferring power.

"Senior US officials had grown frustrated with her assessments of Maduro’s strength, feeling that she provided inaccurate reports. They also grew sceptical of her ability to seize power in Venezuela," the paper reported.

Richard Grenell, Trump’s special envoy, reportedly attempted to establish closer ties by requesting a face-to-face meeting with Machado in Caracas and asking for a list of political prisoners. Machado declined the meeting, citing safety concerns despite assurances of protection, and her team never submitted the list.

Over time, “the relationship deteriorated,” according to people briefed on the interactions. Grenell grew frustrated with Machado’s lack of a detailed plan to install González if the opposition were to win. Machado, for her part, was dismayed that Grenell refused to publicly denounce Maduro’s government as illegitimate.

“Categorical rejection of any talks or contact with Maduro’s government has been a bedrock of Machado’s political strategy, but it has crippled her ability to build a broader coalition,” NYT reported.

Her support for comprehensive sanctions further alienated key domestic constituencies. Venezuela’s business elite, which had struck working arrangements with Maduro’s regime, broke with Machado over her stance. Her economic advisers argued that “every dollar going into Venezuela was a dollar for Mr. Maduro,” a position that isolated her from civil society organisations attempting to improve conditions on the ground.

Machado and her allies abroad also drew criticism for their aggressive use of social media to discredit other opposition voices. These tactics cost her backing among some members of the US Democratic Party and influential business figures with interests in Venezuela.