Poland's economic growth will probably accelerate to 3.1% in 2014 from last year's 1.6% and further to 3.8% in 2015, according to new forecasts presented by leading think tank, the Gdansk Institute for Market Economics (IBnGR). In February, the Institute projected the GDP growth at 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively.
The institution expects economic growth to continue to accelerate from quarter to quarter, albeit the differences will not be huge: it estimates the Q1 growth at 2.9% and projects the Q4 growth at 3.3%.
The Institute also deems - which is broadly in line with market consensus - that inflation will continue to pose no major risks in the next two years. In 2014, it expects the average annual inflation at 1.3% (vs. 0.9% in 2013) and the 12-month figure at 2.1% in December of 2014 (vs. 0.7% a year before). In 2015, the figures are projected at 2.1% and 2.4%, respectively.
IBnGR notes that low inflation will be one of the factors positively impacting the growth of individual consumption. It also does not expect interest rate hikes this year due to low inflation (which is also in line with market consensus).
Notwithstanding the current turmoil on international financial markets, IBnGR expects a mild appreciation of the zloty against the EUR and USD this year. However, due to record-low interest rates, this appreciation trend will not be as strong as it could have been expected a few years ago, it concluded.