Russia’s Watcom shopping index began to rise again in the first two weeks of December, but remains down by nearly half on all the previous years since the index was founded in 2014.

The shopping index measures foot traffic in the leading malls in Moscow using 3D imaging technology and gives an almost real time way to track changes in consumer behaviour.

As the chart clearly shows, foot traffic crashed during the lockdown imposed on Russia at the end of spring but quickly rebounded in the summer once the restrictions were lifted, making back all the ground lost and catching up to the 2018 levels of traffic.

However, in September the traffic began to fall again and accelerated as the second wave of the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic gathered momentum. The index fell from a recent high of 429 in September to new low of 356 in in November, a drop of 20.5%.

But by the start of December the index had started to recover and reached a value of 378 in week 50 in the middle of December, down by 13.5% from the recent high in September.

On a year-on-year basis the Watcom index remains deeply depressed as the mid-December result is down by 43.6% from the same week a year earlier. However, the trend has reversed and foot traffic has increased somewhat from the month before, albeit only mildly.

With daily infection rates in Russia currently running at over 25,000 new cases confirmed a day – more than twice the peak level in the first wave – the Russian authorities have adopted a “lockdown-lite” regime as they try to strike a balance between keeping the economy working, but restricting movement to control the spread of the illness.

OAPs have been ordered to stay at home and social distancing and mask-wearing rules are being much more stringently enforced. However, the restaurants and cars remain open, although an 11pm curfew is being imposed that led to an explosion of Christmas decoration and party supply orders online in November when the new rules were announced. Online Christmas tree sales soared 23-fold in November.

Foot traffic is bound to rise in the last two weeks of the year as it has done every year in week 51 and 52, but it is unlikely to come anywhere close to previous years' results and will fall further behind in y/y terms.