Iran's fertility rate has fallen from 6.8 children per woman in the 1980s to below 1.5 in 2024/25, while the share of women who never marry has increased sevenfold in less than four decades, the secretary of the National Population Headquarters warned on December 8.

Annual registered marriages have dropped from approximately 800,000 between 2011 and 2013 to around 480,000 in 2024.

Iran’s fertility rate of 1.5 is well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain population stability without immigration. What makes matters worse more than 40 years of sanctions have forced many people to leave the heavily weakened country and those who have stayed behind have faced the full force of US and European sanctions. On the current trajectory, Iran faces a rapidly ageing population and potential economic challenges similar to those experienced by Japan and South Korea, but without the financial capital or family networks to enable care for the elderly.

For Iran’s highly educated female population, the average marriage age for women is now 24.5 years, up on previous years. While gap between marriage and first childbirth has increased to approximately 4.5 years. Further worsening matters, the interval between first and second children has reached 6 years.

The phenomenon of "permanent singlehood" has grown significantly, with the share of 50-year-old women who have never married rising from 1.1% in 1986 to 7.7% in 2023, representing a nearly sevenfold increase and in line with neighbouring countries like Armenia with a similar rate of 8%, according to that country’s data.

Iran's demographic shift represents one of the fastest fertility declines recorded globally, only matched by countries including South Korea and Italy.  

The UN previously hailed the country's implemented aggressive family planning policies in the 1990s that successfully reduced population growth, but authorities have since reversed course amid concerns about an ageing population and shrinking workforce.

The government has introduced various incentives to encourage marriage and childbearing, including housing loans for young couples, cash payments for newborns and extended parental leave.

Discussions are still ongoing whether a “singleton tax” could be levied on households with no children to make up the shortfall in income from couples, however, this has only been in discussion stages so far.

However, economic pressures, including high inflation, housing costs and unemployment, have deterred many young Iranians from starting families.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly called for a population increase, setting a target of 150mn people compared with the current population of approximately 90mn.

"The decline in Iran's fertility rate isn't a choice but rather society's natural response to economic insecurity," notes one sociologist in the new Eghtesad24 report.

The focus on quantitative population growth without considering quality of life could lead to a generational catastrophe – producing a cohort lacking education, employment, and hope for the future.

Projections indicate that Iran's population will reach 107mn by the end of its 20-year outlook, with over 15.5mn (14.7%) being elderly. This demographic shift threatens to create significant economic and social shocks, from empty schools to vacant university seats and a diminished workforce, Etemad reported in February.

Trillions of rials were spent on fertility loans in 2023-24, which could have been invested in healthcare infrastructure or education. Instead, these funds were directed toward short-term schemes that primarily increased liquidity and exacerbated inflation already running at 40% in Iran.

"If we subtract the annual death rate from the birth rate, our population grows by only 580,000 people annually. At the current birth rate, mortality will soon exceed births," said Alireza Raisi, Deputy Health Minister, highlighting the ministry's growing concern.

He added: "I believe population rejuvenation must be among the country's top priorities. We have communicated this as the top priority to medical universities across the country."