Slovenia, a country of 2.1mn people, is heading into highly uncertain parliamentary elections on March 22, with a tightening race between former prime minister Janez Jansa's opposition Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) and Prime Minister Robert Golob's ruling Freedom Movement.

For much of the campaign, the right-wing conservative SDS maintained a steady lead in opinion polls, positioning Jansa, a close ally of Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán and a vocal supporter of US President Donald Trump, as the frontrunner to return to power.

On the international front, Golob, a former energy executive who came to power in 2022, has positioned himself as a vocal critic of Russia’s war in Ukraine as well as US backing of Israel’s war in Gaza.

However, in the final stretch, the gap between the two camps has narrowed, reflecting a combination of government policy measures and shifting voter dynamics.

Recent initiatives by Golob’s government — including mandatory Christmas bonuses, pension increases and a higher minimum wage — appear to have boosted support for the ruling party. These measures have helped the Freedom Movement regain ground, turning what once seemed like a clear opposition advantage into a far more competitive contest.

A new election forecast released by the Mediana Institute on March 15 reveals the fragmented nature of Slovenia’s political landscape. According to the projection, as many as seven parties could enter the 90-member parliament, with neither the centre-right nor the centre-left bloc expected to secure a clear majority.

SDS is projected to remain in first place with 23.9% support, gaining roughly two percentage points compared to the previous poll. The Freedom Movement recorded the largest increase, rising by four points to 20.1%.

Smaller parties are expected to play a decisive role. The Social Democrats stand at 6.6%, while a joint list comprising New Slovenia (NSi), the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) and Fokus is projected at 6.1%.

The alliance between The Left and Vesna – Green Party has 6.0% support. Anze Logar’s Democrats are polling at 5.7%, and Resni.ca party is hovering near the parliamentary threshold with 4.2%. The Pirate Party remains below the threshold at 3.3%.

Public preferences for government formation reflect the deep polarisation of the electorate. About 25% of respondents favour a centre-right government led by Jansa, while nearly 24% support a centre-left coalition under Golob. Notably, almost 30% say they would prefer a government led by neither of the two main leaders.

Controversial campaign

Against this backdrop, the campaign has become increasingly tense and controversial.

“The political situation in Slovenia a few days before the elections is extremely heated,” analyst Marko Gruden from the Slovenian Institute dr. Janez Evangelist Krek (IJEK) told bne IntelliNews in a written statement.

He pointed to a series of secretly recorded videos involving individuals close to the current government, which have dominated the final phase of the campaign.

“Secretly recorded videos of influential individuals close to the current government of Dr. Robert Golob have emerged, allegedly revealing corruption and abuse of power by prominent representatives of the left-wing political sphere and people close to them. New recordings are being published every day, which should primarily concern the judiciary and law enforcement authorities,” Gruden said.

Gruden argued that the response to the scandal has shifted attention away from the substance of the allegations, with institutions and parts of the public sphere focusing instead on the origins of the recordings.

“Instead of addressing the content of these recordings and the alleged corruption, the entire mainstream Slovenian media space, certain non-governmental organizations close to the left-wing political option, and the government are focusing mainly on diverting attention to the issue of foreign interference in the elections.”

He added that, rather than confronting the accusations, efforts have centred on identifying who recorded and released the footage, with even the National Security Council convening to address concerns over “foreign interference in our elections,” which he said reflects a broader shift of focus from corruption to external influence.

The controversy surrounding the leaked recordings has been compounded by official warnings of possible foreign interference.

State Secretary for National and International Security Vojko Volk said on March 18 that authorities had identified indications of direct foreign involvement in the electoral process, citing a report by Slovenia’s intelligence agency, SOVA, RTV SLO reported.

According to Volk, representatives of the private intelligence firm Black Cube visited Slovenia multiple times in recent months, allegedly employing methods such as fake online profiles, covert meetings and false identities.

“It is typical for such operations to release edited material at a precisely chosen moment, often before elections, with the aim of political discrediting,” Volk said.

The issue has triggered investigations by police and intelligence services, while political actors have traded accusations. SDS has denied any links to the firm and announced legal action, while Ljubljana mayor Zoran Jankovic has also said he would pursue a lawsuit.

Coalition maths

Gruden said that, throughout most of the campaign, polls have consistently pointed to an SDS victory, with the Freedom Movement as the only serious challenger.

“The winner will likely be determined by two factors: support for SDS – will it increase, remain stable, or decline in the final week? And consolidation of support around Svoboda (Freedom Movement) – will votes from left-leaning parties that are struggling to enter parliament shift toward Svoboda or not?” he said.

Beyond the two leading parties, the next parliament is expected to include several mid-sized and smaller players, shaping what could be a highly fragmented legislature.

“In addition to the two largest parties, the most likely new parliamentary composition will also include the Social Democrats and Nova Slovenija – Christian Democrats, which formed a pre-election alliance with the Slovenian People’s Party and party of Marko Lotric called Fokus."

"Crossing the parliamentary threshold also appears likely for the Democrats party of Anze Logar and the joint list of the Left (currently part of the government) and Vesna. Polls also suggest that the party Resni.ca may enter parliament, while other smaller parties have been losing support in recent weeks and are increasingly unlikely to pass the threshold.”

Looking ahead, he highlighted turnout as a decisive variable.

“In our view, voter turnout will have a strong impact on the result – which side will be more successful in mobilizing its base? Will it be the opposition parties (SDS, NSi, SLS, Fokus, Democrats), capitalising on public dissatisfaction with the current government, or the parties of the governing coalition (Svoboda, SD, Left, Vesna), mobilizing voters through fear of a government once again led by SDS president Janez Jansa?” he said.

“The possibility of failing to form a government and the need for new elections cannot be ruled out,” Gruden warned, adding that one key uncertainty remains: “One open question remains the party Resni.ca – which government would it join, and which bloc might it align with after the elections?”

As the campaign draws to a close, Slovenia faces not only a tightly contested election but also the prospect of prolonged political uncertainty. With fragmented party support, a polarised electorate and unresolved controversies, the outcome on March 22 may be only the beginning of a complex and potentially unstable government formation process.