Ukrainian president forecasts economic growth at 1.8% y/y in 2017

By bne IntelliNews September 8, 2017

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko believes that Ukraine's GDP will grow by 1.8% year-on-year in 2017.

"This year we predict growth of 1.8%. We anticipate that the economic growth will accelerate to 4% in 2020," Interfax news agency quoted Poroshenko as saying delivering his annual message to the parliament on September 7.

According to official data, Ukraine's real GDP grew 2.4% year-on-year across April-June. In the first quarter, Ukraine's GDP grew by 2.5% y/y. Ukraine's real GDP grew 2.3% y/y in 2016 owing to booming investments in fixed assets (20.1% y/y growth) and reviving private consumption (1.8% y/y).

In July, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) revised downwards its forecast for real GDP growth for 2017 to 1.6% y/y from its 1.9% y/y projection in April.

The forecast was revised due to the worse than expected economic performance in the first half of the year, primarily in services, and revised crop yield assessments. Industries most susceptible to the severance of production ties with the uncontrolled Donbas territories - the mining and metals sector, energy industry and transport industry - will continue to underperform, according to the NBU.

In April, the NBU confirmed its revised 2017 GDP forecast from 2.8% to 1.9% growth year-on-year due to expectations that a trade blockade in eastern Ukraine and the loss of the production facilities in the rebel-held areas in the Donbas region will decrease the output of some industries.

"The government should find possibilities of transforming today's sluggish stir up of GDP into the quick and consistent uplift, which is named stable development," Poroshenko added. "Along with the important reforms such as pension, healthcare and education, we also require decisions entailing the attraction of investment and the achievement of the economic growth pace that would allow us to reduce a lag from more developed countries."

 

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