Latest Turkish industrial output data shows deepening downturn

Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 17, 2018

October contraction of 5.7% is second negative reading in a row. Turkey probably entered a technical recession in Q4, says analyst.

Turkish lira tests over 5.40 vs USD as global slowdown fears hurt emerging markets

Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 14, 2018

Analysts, meanwhile, divided on how deep Turkey’s downturn will be. Renaissance says trajectory may mean there will be “decent stories to find in the market”.

No surprise as Turkish rates are held but “premature” cut fears persist

Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 13, 2018

Analysts fear irresistible pressure is building for monetary backsliding ahead of local elections set to take place amid a recession.

Turkish lira tests 5.40 against USD after Erdogan declares operation against Syrian Kurds

Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 12, 2018

Turkey’s traditional pre-election military moves are under way.

Srbijagas to borrow €70mn for TurkStream, as Bulgarian opposition seeks to halt project

bne IntelliNews December 11, 2018

The second line of the Turkish Stream pipeline that will deliver Russian gas via Turkey to Europe, bypassing Ukraine, will span Bulgaria and Serbia starting from 2020.

Acute economic restructuring in Turkey delivers record monthly current account surplus of $2.8bn

Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 11, 2018

Analysts taken aback by the extent of the reversal in trade flows. Question is how deep and painful country’s recession will be for voters and industry.

Turkey’s Q3 GDP recorded at 1.6% on sharper than expected slowdown

Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 10, 2018

Previous growth driver construction contracts sharply as economic turmoil following currency crisis takes toll. Recession appears to be under way, say analysts.

Turkish markets: Big mortgage-backed securities move amid new ‘normal’ anomalies

Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 7, 2018

Akbank’s issue abroad approved. Professor, meanwhile, notes paradoxical statistics in a new-era economic environment where “perceptions are controlled by the government”.

Infrastructure freeze be damned! Turkey to build $16bn Canal Istanbul

bne IntelliNews December 6, 2018

With the Turks heading into a recession there had been some expectation the mega infrastructure ambition would be cancelled amid austerity. Not on your nelly.

Shares in Sberbank's Turkish unit Denizbank climb 19.93% d/d

Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 6, 2018

Lender, lined up for a sale to Emirates NBD, closes in on second place for banks by market cap. Akbank has rough day after announcing rights issue.

Will Ukraine’s president follow Erdogan’s emergency powers playbook?

Ben Aris in Berlin, William Conroy in Prague December 6, 2018

Emergency rule in Turkey lasted two long years. The president purged his enemies and reshaped the constitution to give him potent rule. Parts of Ukraine are now under martial law ahead of elections. The Turkish experience could prove instructive.

Turkish private pension funds permitted to buy up to TRY3.3bn in asset-backed securities

Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 5, 2018

Permission given to allocate up to 30% of state-contribution monies, but only to funds approved and graded by Capital Markets Board.

“Smoking saw”: Senators conclude Saudi crown prince ordered Khashoggi hit in Istanbul

bne IntelliNews December 4, 2018

Turkey and Iran may look to exploit chasm opening up between Trump and Congress over scandal.

Recovery in Turkey’s Real Effective Exchange Rate extends into November

Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 4, 2018

However, December 4 brings substantial lira weakening as markets run scared of premature rate cut ahead of local elections.

S&P sees Turkish banks’ bad loans doubling in next 12-18 months

bne IntelliNews December 4, 2018

Rating agency assesses likely impact on credit books as currency crisis-hit Turkey moves into a recession.

Turkey sees surprisingly strong fall in inflation

Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 3, 2018

Rapid disinflation seen amid steep recession brought on by inadequate monetary policy. ‘Voluntary’ private sector price cuts help cut 3.62pp from CPI rate.

Turkey raises December domestic borrowing projection to TRY4.5bn

Akin Nazli in Belgrade November 30, 2018

Move follows finance minister last week telling parliamentary committee he did not really need to borrow lira through the end of the year but that did not mean that he would not.

Turkish Development Bank turning into ‘disguised bad bank’ for lenders’ mortgage-backed securities

Akin Nazli in Belgrade November 29, 2018

Sceptical observers raise alarm at securitisation and potentially subprime risk transfer scheme to generate liquidity for banks amid Turkey’s credit crunch.

UK judge refuses Turkey’s request for extradition of dispossessed media proprietor

bne IntelliNews November 28, 2018

Ruling describes application as “politically motivated”. Hamdi Akin Ipek says he has been followed in London and has had his assets illegally confiscated.

Pre-election stimulus fest under way in Turkey

Akin Nazli in Belgrade November 27, 2018

Markets want fiscal discipline amid the country's economic turmoil but campaign pressures amid a recession could cause significant backsliding.