Alarm bells over Turkey’s economic bind ‘akin to those of 1997 Asian debt crisis’

bne IntelliNews April 20, 2018

No problems yet seen with banks struggling to roll over foreign loans, but investors are “being complacent” says analyst.

Home sales in Turkey fall 14% y/y in March

bne IntelliNews April 20, 2018

Given Turkey's economic difficulties, the central bank and lenders have not moved to provide cheaper loans as desired by ruling politicians.

Turkish consumer confidence sees slight 0.8% m/m gain in April

bne IntelliNews April 20, 2018

Figures finalised before the surprise announcement of early elections show a small recovery in sentiment.

Turkey’s end-year inflation expectations climb to 10.07% in April

bne IntelliNews April 20, 2018

Regular survey shows respondents expect the rate to be nowhere near the central bank’s 5-7% upper target range.

Turkey’s Erdogan calls snap landmark elections set to deliver one-man rule

bne IntelliNews April 18, 2018

Observers claim president is hurrying to hold the polls before the economy goes haywire, but the initial market response to his announcement is very positive.

Only Istanbul stock exchange feels weight of early election call from Erdogan’s junior ally

bne IntelliNews April 18, 2018

Benchmark index down 1.76% d/d but Turkish lira and bonds relatively unaffected.

Splits apparent in EU over enlargement

bne IntelliNews April 17, 2018

European Commission recommends start of accession negotiations for Albania and Macedonia, but French President Macron says Paris will oppose any enlargement until the EU reconfigures post-Brexit.

Turkey’s ruling party poised for early election decision after ally's request

bne IntelliNews April 17, 2018

Landmark polls, after which the post of PM will be abolished in favour of a near all-powerful executive president, could be held as soon as August.

Sustained growth in Turkey’s auto export revenues seen as positive for Ford Otosan and Tofas

bne IntelliNews April 16, 2018

Latest data also shows Turkish auto production edged up 1% y/y to 159,464 units in March.

Turkey’s banks exposed to problem loans by weakened lira says Moody’s

bne IntelliNews April 16, 2018

Higher loan-loss charges will reduce banks’ profitability and capital ratios, raising the the probability that foreign funding availability will fall, ratings agency says, noting 33% of Turkey’s bank loans are in foreign currency.

Turkey’s budget deficit expands 4% y/y in March

bne IntelliNews April 16, 2018

Across Q1, the deficit widened by 37% y/y to TRY20.4bn while the primary surplus declined by 51% y/y to TRY1.9bn.

Turkey's industrial production grows 9.9% y/y in February

bne IntelliNews April 16, 2018

Output growth slowed for the second consecutive month but industrial production has now been in growth territory for an uninterrupted 16 months.

Turkey’s unemployment rate moves up 0.4pp to 10.8% in January

bne IntelliNews April 16, 2018

Year on year, however, the figure is a clear improvement on January 2017's 13%.

After a skyrocketing 2017 Istanbul stock exchange may be in for a trend reversal

Akin Nazli in Belgrade April 15, 2018

Some $20bn erased from value of Turkish equities since start of April amid country's litany of economic and political woes.

Russia calls emergency UN session over US, France and UK’s Syria missile strikes

Ben Aris in Berlin April 14, 2018

Response to claimed use of chemical weapons appears to have been carefully calibrated to avoid putting Moscow into a position where it might have to react militarily. Russia has accused the US of international “hooliganism”.

Turkish central bank reports $299mn of portfolio outflows in week ending April 6

bne IntelliNews April 12, 2018

Turkish equities experience net decrease of $57mn while debt securities lose $242mn in week to April 6.

Turkey’s gross FX reserves fall to six-year low

bne IntelliNews April 12, 2018

Net foreign exchange reserves also declined, decreasing by $2.6bn w/w to $26.7bn as of April 6, the lowest level since 2005.

Turkey’s Erdogan warns “nobody can discipline us with exchange rates”

bne IntelliNews April 12, 2018

Turkish lira takes a breather from five days of steep devaluation as populist president lashes out at international investors

Capital pencils in Turkish rate rise as Erdogan rails at “economic attack”

Will Conroy in Prague April 11, 2018

Economic research house sees lira descending to an all-time low that the central bank will not be able to ignore despite the political heat.

Slightly better current account data fails to halt Turkish lira’s slide

bne IntelliNews April 11, 2018

Deficit beats market expectations but that small victory and an intervention from the PM to assure markets of central bank's monetary role do little to put brake on devaluation.